{"id":24773,"date":"2026-01-12T07:04:49","date_gmt":"2026-01-11T23:04:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.xq.com.tw\/xstrader\/?p=24773"},"modified":"2026-01-12T07:04:49","modified_gmt":"2026-01-11T23:04:49","slug":"%e5%be%9e%e7%a7%91%e6%8a%80%e8%82%a1%e4%bb%a3%e5%b7%a5%e5%bb%a0%e7%9a%84%e8%b3%87%e6%9c%ac%e6%94%af%e5%87%ba%ef%bc%8c%e7%a0%94%e5%88%a4%e7%a7%91%e6%8a%80%e6%9d%bf%e5%a1%8a%e5%9c%a8s%e6%9b%b2%e7%b7%9a","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.xq.com.tw\/xstrader\/%e5%be%9e%e7%a7%91%e6%8a%80%e8%82%a1%e4%bb%a3%e5%b7%a5%e5%bb%a0%e7%9a%84%e8%b3%87%e6%9c%ac%e6%94%af%e5%87%ba%ef%bc%8c%e7%a0%94%e5%88%a4%e7%a7%91%e6%8a%80%e6%9d%bf%e5%a1%8a%e5%9c%a8s%e6%9b%b2%e7%b7%9a\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5f9e\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u4ee3\u5de5\u5ee0\u7684\u8cc7\u672c\u652f\u51fa\uff0c\u7814\u5224\u79d1\u6280\u677f\u584a\u5728S\u66f2\u7dda\u4e2d\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e"},"content":{"rendered":"

2025\u5e74\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u7126\u9ede\u5728\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\uff0c2026\u5e74\uff0c\u9019\u80a1\u98a8\u6f6e\u65b9\u8208\u672a\u827e\uff0cWhale Rock Capital\u662f\u4e00\u5bb6\u5c08\u6ce8\u6295\u8cc7\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u7684\u907f\u96aa\u57fa\u91d1\uff0c\u5b83\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u54f2\u5b78\u662f\u5c0b\u627e\u8655\u65bcS\u66f2\u7dda10-50%\u6ef2\u900f\u7387\u968e\u6bb5\u7684\u4f01\u696d\uff0c\u4eca\u5929\u4f86\u8ddf\u5927\u5bb6\u8a0e\u8ad6S\u66f2\u7dda\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u4e26\u4e14\u8acbAI\u5206\u6790\u5e7e\u500b\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u7522\u696d\u6982\u5ff5\u80a1\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u5728S\u66f2\u7dda\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

S\u66f2\u7dda\u662f\u6295\u8cc7\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\u5f88\u5e38\u88ab\u63d0\u5230\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u5728\u9f8d\u6372\u98a8\u66b4\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u4e2d\uff0c\u8b1b\u7684\u5f88\u8a73\u7d30\uff0c\u5b83\u7684\u6578\u5b78\u516c\u5f0f\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Whale Rock Capital\u5c31\u662f\u6839\u64da\u9019\u500b\u516c\u5f0f\uff0c\u8a8d\u70ba\u6ef2\u900f\u7387\u5230\u4e8650%\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u6210\u9577\u901f\u5ea6\u5c31\u6703\u6e1b\u7de9\uff0c\u6ef2\u900f\u7387\u592a\u4f4e\uff0c\u53c8\u6015\u9019\u500b\u79d1\u6280\u7121\u6cd5\u8de8\u8d8a\u9d3b\u6e9d\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u5b83\u5011\u5c08\u62bc\u6ef2\u900f\u7387\u572810-50%\u7684\u79d1\u6280\u7522\u696d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u6839\u64da\u7d93\u5178\u7684\u300c\u7f85\u5091\u65af\u5275\u65b0\u64f4\u6563\u7406\u8ad6\uff08Rogers’ Diffusion of Innovation\uff09\u300d\uff0cS\u66f2\u7dda\u53ef\u4f9d\u64da\u7d2f\u7a4d\u6ef2\u900f\u7387\u5283\u5206\u70ba\u4e94\u500b\u95dc\u9375\u7fa4\u9ad4\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\u968e\u6bb5<\/b><\/td>\n\u7d2f\u7a4d\u6ef2\u900f\u7387<\/b><\/td>\n\u7fa4\u9ad4\u540d\u7a31<\/b><\/td>\n\u6295\u8cc7\u95dc\u9375\u9ede (PM \u8996\u89d2)<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u7b2c\u4e00\u968e\u6bb5<\/b><\/td>\n0% – 2.5%<\/b><\/td>\n\u5275\u65b0\u8005 (Innovators)<\/b><\/td>\n\u8655\u65bc R&D \u671f\uff0c\u98a8\u96aa\u6975\u9ad8\uff0c\u9069\u5408\u8ffd\u8e64\u5c08\u5229\u8207\u878d\u8cc7\u800c\u975e\u71df\u6536\u3002<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u7b2c\u4e8c\u968e\u6bb5<\/b><\/td>\n2.5% – 16%<\/b><\/td>\n\u65e9\u671f\u63a1\u7528\u8005 (Early Adopters)<\/b><\/td>\n\u8de8\u8d8a 10% \u9580\u6abb\u5f8c\uff0c\u6280\u8853\u9032\u5165\u300c\u7522\u54c1\u5316\u300d\uff0c\u662f\u7206\u767c\u7684\u524d\u5146\u3002<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u7b2c\u4e09\u968e\u6bb5<\/b><\/td>\n16% – 50%<\/b><\/td>\n\u65e9\u671f\u5927\u773e (Early Majority)<\/b><\/td>\n\u9ec3\u91d1\u7372\u5229\u6bb5\u3002<\/b> \u9700\u6c42\u66f2\u7dda\u6700\u9661\u5ced\uff0c\u4f01\u696d\u71df\u6536\u5f80\u5f80\u51fa\u73fe\u500d\u6578\u589e\u9577\u3002<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u7b2c\u56db\u968e\u6bb5<\/b><\/td>\n50% – 84%<\/b><\/td>\n\u665a\u671f\u5927\u773e (Late Majority)<\/b><\/td>\n\u5e02\u5834\u9032\u5165\u6210\u719f\u671f\uff0c\u7af6\u722d\u52a0\u5287\uff0c\u7372\u5229\u80fd\u529b\u958b\u59cb\u9762\u81e8\u908a\u969b\u905e\u6e1b\u3002<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u7b2c\u4e94\u968e\u6bb5<\/b><\/td>\n84% – 100%<\/b><\/td>\n\u843d\u5f8c\u8005 (Laggards)<\/b><\/td>\n\u98fd\u548c\u8207\u8870\u9000\u671f\uff0c\u6280\u8853\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u4e0b\u4e00\u689d\u65b0\u7684 S \u66f2\u7dda\u53d6\u4ee3\u3002<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n

Whale Rock Capital\u5c08\u6ce8\u6295\u8cc7\u65e9\u671f\u63a1\u7528\u8005\uff0c\u78ba\u5b9a\u6703\u904e\u6e21\u5230\u65e9\u671f\u5927\u773e\u7684\u79d1\u6280\u9818\u57df\uff0c\u9019\u88e1\u8981\u8aaa\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u4e00\u5473\u8ffd\u6c42\u7834\u58de\u5f0f\u5275\u65b0\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u662f\u6240\u6709\u7834\u58de\u5f0f\u5275\u65b0\u90fd\u80fd\u88ab\u5927\u773e\u6240\u63a1\u7d0d\uff0c3D\u5217\u5370\u53ca\u690d\u7269\u8089\u5c31\u662f\u5f88\u597d\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u90a3\u600e\u9ebc\u5224\u65b7\u6ef2\u900f\u7387\u6703\u5f9e10%\u4ee5\u4e0b\u5f8050%\u8d70\u5462? \u6709\u4e00\u500b\u5f88\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff1a \u89c0\u5bdf\u4f9b\u61c9\u934a\u4e2d\u4e9e\u6d32\u4ee3\u5de5\u5ee0\u53ca\u4e0a\u6e38\u95dc\u9375\u96f6\u7d44\u4ef6\u8a2d\u5099\u5546\u7684\u8cc7\u672c\u652f\u51fa\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u56e0\u70ba\u4e9e\u6d32\u7684\u9019\u4e9b\u4ee3\u5de5\u5ee0\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u4e0d\u898b\u5154\u5b50\u4e0d\u6492\u9df9\uff0c\u4efb\u6191\u4f60\u7f8e\u570b\u516c\u53f8\u8b1b\u7684\u591a\u53b2\u5bb3\uff0c\u9664\u975e\u770b\u5230\u8da8\u52e2\u5f88\u660e\u986f\uff0c\u4e0d\u7136\u4e0d\u6703\u771f\u91d1\u767d\u9280\u7684\u64f4\u5145\u7522\u80fd\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u4e00\u500b\u5ee0\u84cb\u8d77\u4f86\uff0c\u6a5f\u5668\u8a2d\u5099\u8cb7\u9032\u4f86\uff0c\u6c92\u6709\u5e7e\u5e74\u597d\u5149\u666f\uff0c\u662f\u4e0d\u6703\u771f\u7684\u8cfa\u9322\uff0c\u966a\u516c\u5b50\u54e5\u5152\u8a66\u7522\u53ef\u4ee5\uff0c\u7528\u73fe\u6709\u751f\u7522\u7dda\u91cf\u7522\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\uff0c\u8981\u6211\u84cb\u65b0\u5ee0\uff0c\u9664\u975e\u6211\u771f\u7684\u4e5f\u770b\u597d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u53f0\u7063\u7684\u78ba\u662f\u7ad9\u5728\u6295\u8cc7\u7f8e\u570b\u79d1\u6280\u80a1\uff0c\u4e00\u500b\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u89c0\u5bdf\u4f4d\u7f6e\uff0c\u7576\u7136\u9019\u88e1\u8aaa\u7684\u662f\u786c\u9ad4\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u662fSaas\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u5f97\u627e\u5176\u4ed6\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e86\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u6211\u5148\u524d\u6709\u8ddf\u5927\u5bb6\u4ecb\u7d39XS\u958b\u59cb\u652f\u63f4Group\u9019\u500b\u51fd\u6578\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u628a\u7d30\u7522\u696d\u6210\u4efd\u80a1\u88e1\u7684\u7279\u5b9a\u6b04\u4f4d\u62ff\u4f86\u4e00\u8d77\u505a\u8a08\u7b97\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u5011\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u756b\u51fa\u7279\u5b9a\u7d30\u7522\u696d\u7684\u5408\u8a08\u8cc7\u672c\u652f\u51fa\u9577\u671f\u8d70\u52e2\u5716\uff0c\u50cf\u4e0b\u9762\u9019\u5f35\u5c31\u662f\u5c01\u6e2c\u7684\u9577\u671f\u8cc7\u672c\u652f\u51fa\u8d70\u52e2\u5716<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u5f9e\u9019\u5f35\u5716\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa\uff0c2024\u5e74\u7b2c\u56db\u5b63\uff0c\u53f0\u7063\u7684\u5c01\u6e2c\u7522\u696d\u5c31\u7528\u771f\u91d1\u767d\u9280\u62bcAI\u4e0d\u662f\u6ce1\u6cac<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u756b\u51fa\u4e0a\u9762\u9019\u5f35\u5716\u7684\u6307\u6a19\u8173\u672c\uff0c\u6211\u9644\u5728\u4e0b\u9762<\/span><\/p>\n

Group: _group();\/\/\u5ba3\u544a\u7fa4\u7d44\r\nvar: _i(0), _size(0);\r\n_group = GetSymbolGroup(\"\u6210\u4efd\u80a1\");\/\/\u6307\u5b9a\u7fa4\u7d44\u7684\u5546\u54c1\r\n\/\/ \u6aa2\u67e5\u662f\u5426\u6709\u8cc7\u6599\r\n_size = GroupSize(_group);\r\nif _size = 0 then return;\r\n\/\/ \u8ff4\u5708\u904b\u7b97\u524d\uff0c\u521d\u59cb\u5316\u8b8a\u6578\r\nvalue1 = 0;\r\nvalue2 = 0;\r\nvalue3=0;\r\n\/\/ \u8ff4\u5708\u8a08\u7b97\u6bcf\u4e00\u6a94\u6210\u4efd\u80a1\u6578\u503c\r\nfor _i = 1 to _size begin \/\/\u5927\u8ff4\u5708\u6703\u8dd1\u904d\u6bcf\u4e00\u6a94\u6210\u4efd\u80a1\r\nif CheckSymbolField(_group[_i], \"Close\") then begin \/\/\u78ba\u8a8d\u80a1\u7968\u7576\u5929\u6709\u8cc7\u6599\r\n\/\/ \u5be6\u969b\u8981\u8a08\u7b97\u7684\u5167\u5bb9===\u958b\u59cb===\r\n\/\/ STEP 1 \u63db\u671f\u6642\u6578\u503c\u6b78\u96f6\r\nif GetSymbolFieldDate(_group[_i], \"\u8cc7\u672c\u652f\u51fa\u91d1\u984d\", \"Q\") > value1 then begin \/\/\u5982\u679c\u6210\u4efd\u80a1\u6709\u4eba\u63d0\u524d\u516c\u4f48\u6578\u503c\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u8a08\u7b97\u7684\u90fd\u6b78\u96f6\r\nvalue1 = GetSymbolFieldDate(_group[_i], \"\u8cc7\u672c\u652f\u51fa\u91d1\u984d\", \"Q\");\r\nvalue2 = 0;\r\nvalue3 = 0;\r\nend;\r\n\r\n\/\/ STEP 2 \u540c\u6a23\u671f\u5225\u6642\uff0c\u6578\u503c\u8a08\u7b97\r\nif GetSymbolFieldDate(_group[_i], \"\u8cc7\u672c\u652f\u51fa\u91d1\u984d\", \"Q\") = value1 then begin \/\/\u4f9d\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u8cc7\u6599\u671f\u5225\u9032\u884c\u7d71\u8a08\r\nvalue2 = value2 + 1;\r\nvalue3 = value3 + GetSymbolField(_group[_i], \"\u8cc7\u672c\u652f\u51fa\u91d1\u984d\", \"Q\");\r\nend;\r\n\/\/ \u5be6\u969b\u8981\u8a08\u7b97\u7684\u5167\u5bb9===\u7d50\u675f===\r\nend; \r\nend;\r\n\/\/ \u8981\u7e6a\u88fd\u7684\u6307\u6a19\r\n\/\/ \r\nplot(1, value3, \"\u6574\u9ad4\u8cc7\u672c\u652f\u51fa\u91d1\u984d\");\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\u4e0d\u904e\u9019\u908a\u8981\u7279\u5225\u5f37\u8abf\u5169\u9ede\r\n\u4e00\uff0c\u4ee3\u5de5\u5ee0\u53ca\u96f6\u7d44\u4ef6\u5ee0\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21FOR\u7279\u5b9a\u79d1\u6280\u677f\u584a\u4f5c\u8cc7\u672c\u652f\u51fa\u7684\u7d71\u8a08\u503c\u624d\u6709\u610f\u7fa9\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u662f\u5728S\u66f2\u7dda\u8981\u8d77\u98db\u7684\u90a3\u4e00\u6bb5\r\n\u5982\u679c\u662f\u52a0\u78bc\u6295\u5165\uff0c\u90a3\u53ef\u80fd\u6ef2\u900f\u7387\u90fd\u5df2\u7d93\u904e\u4e94\u6210\u4e86\r\n\u4e8c\uff0c\u8cc7\u672c\u652f\u51fa\u4e00\u5b63\u624d\u516c\u4f48\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c\u8981\u5373\u6642\u638c\u63e1\u65b0\u8208\u79d1\u6280\u662f\u5426\u9032\u5230S\u66f2\u7dda\u8ff7\u4eba\u7684\u90a3\u4e00\u6bb5\uff0c\u89c0\u5bdf\u65b0\u805e\u4e2d\u76f8\u95dc\u4f9b\u61c9\u934a\u8cc7\u672c\u652f\u51fa\u7684\u6d88\u606f\uff0c\u61c9\u8a72\u6703\u66f4\u5373\u6642\u3002\r\n\u4e0b\u9762\u662f\u6211\u8acbAI\u5e6b\u6211\u5206\u6790\u76ee\u524d\u5e7e\u500b\u5927\u7684\u79d1\u6280\u677f\u584a\u5728S\u66f2\u7dda\u4e2d\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\uff0c\u4f9b\u5927\u5bb6\u53c3\u8003\u3002\r\n<\/pre>\n
 <\/p>\n
2026 \u79d1\u6280\u8cfd\u9053 S \u66f2\u7dda\u73fe\u72c0\u8a55\u4f30\u8868 (Benchmark)<\/b><\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\u79d1\u6280\u8cfd\u9053<\/b><\/td>\n\u95dc\u9375\u6ef2\u900f\u7387\u6307\u6a19 (Key Metric)<\/b><\/td>\n\u76ee\u524d S \u66f2\u7dda\u4f4d\u7f6e<\/b><\/td>\n\u6240\u8655\u968e\u6bb5<\/b><\/td>\nPM \u6295\u8cc7\/\u7b56\u7565\u89c0\u9ede<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AI Agents (AI \u4ee3\u7406\u4eba)<\/b><\/td>\n\u4f01\u696d\u7d1a\u81ea\u52d5\u5316\u6d41\u7a0b (Agentic Workflows) \u7684\u8986\u84cb\u7387<\/span><\/td>\n18% – 22%<\/b><\/td>\n\u9032\u5165\u52a0\u901f\u6bb5 (Early Acceleration)<\/b><\/td>\n\u7206\u767c\u9ede\uff1a<\/b> \u5df2\u8de8\u8d8a 10% \u9580\u6abb\uff0c\u6b63\u5f9e\u300c\u5c0d\u8a71\u300d\u8f49\u5411\u300c\u884c\u52d5\u300d\u3002\u9019\u662f 2026 \u5e74\u7372\u53d6 Alpha \u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u6230\u5834\u3002<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u4eba\u5f62\u6a5f\u5668\u4eba (Humanoid Robots)<\/b><\/td>\n\u5168\u7403\u767e\u5f37\u88fd\u9020\u696d\u5de5\u5ee0\u7684\u90e8\u7f72\u5bc6\u5ea6 (Units per 10k workers)<\/span><\/td>\n3% – 5%<\/b><\/td>\n\u840c\u82bd\u671f (Incubation\/Early)<\/b><\/td>\n\u89c0\u5bdf\u9ede\uff1a<\/b> \u8655\u65bc\u300c10% \u62d0\u9ede\u300d\u524d\u5915\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u4e3b\u8981\u770b Tesla Optimus \u7b49\u9818\u982d\u7f8a\u7684 <\/span>BOM \u6210\u672c\u4e0b\u964d\u901f\u5ea6<\/b>\u3002<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u56fa\u614b\u96fb\u6c60 (Solid-state Batteries)<\/b><\/td>\n\u9ad8\u968e\u96fb\u52d5\u8eca (Premium EV) \u7684\u5e02\u5834\u4f54\u6709\u7387<\/span><\/td>\n1% – 2%<\/b><\/td>\n\u65e9\u671f\u7814\u767c\u6bb5 (Pre-Inflection)<\/b><\/td>\n\u98a8\u96aa\u9ede\uff1a<\/b> \u4ecd\u5728\u89e3\u6c7a\u91cf\u7522\u826f\u7387\u554f\u984c\u3002\u6578\u64da\u61c9\u76e3\u63a7<\/span>\u5c08\u5229\u7533\u8acb\u6578<\/b>\u800c\u975e\u71df\u6536\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u71df\u6536\u5c1a\u672a\u7206\u767c\u3002<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CPO \/ \u77fd\u5149\u5b50 (Co-Packaged Optics)<\/b><\/td>\n800G\/1.6T \u5149\u6a21\u7d44\u5728 AI \u8cc7\u6599\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7684\u63a1\u7d0d\u7387<\/span><\/td>\n12% – 15%<\/b><\/td>\n\u62d0\u9ede\u78ba\u8a8d (Inflection Point)<\/b><\/td>\n\u6a5f\u6703\u9ede\uff1a<\/b> \u525b\u8de8\u8d8a 10% \u95dc\u9375\u9580\u6abb\uff0c\u9700\u6c42\u66f2\u7dda\u659c\u7387\u6700\u9661\u5ced\u3002\u9019\u662f\u5178\u578b\u7684\u300cWhale Rock \u5f0f\u300d\u8cb7\u5165\u9ede\u3002<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u4f4e\u8ecc\u885b\u661f (LEO Satellites)<\/b><\/td>\n\u5168\u7403\u5bec\u983b\u7528\u6236\u4e2d\uff0c\u885b\u661f\u9023\u7db2\u7684\u8a02\u95b1\u4f54\u6bd4<\/span><\/td>\n25% – 30%<\/b><\/td>\n\u5feb\u901f\u6210\u9577\u6bb5 (Rapid Growth)<\/b><\/td>\n\u6210\u719f\u5ea6\uff1a<\/b> \u5df2\u7d93\u904e\u534a\u52a0\u901f\u671f\u3002\u91cd\u9ede\u5728\u65bc <\/span>ARPU (\u5e73\u5747\u7528\u6236\u8ca2\u737b\u5ea6)<\/b> \u7684\u63d0\u5347\u8207\u7372\u5229\u8f49\u6298\u3002<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n
 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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