{"id":24873,"date":"2026-01-20T07:29:23","date_gmt":"2026-01-19T23:29:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.xq.com.tw\/xstrader\/?p=24873"},"modified":"2026-01-20T07:31:23","modified_gmt":"2026-01-19T23:31:23","slug":"%e7%b4%8d%e9%81%94%e6%8b%89%e4%ba%9e-%e6%b2%83%e6%a3%ae%e5%8c%85%e7%b5%a1%e7%b7%9a-nadaraya-watson-envelope","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.xq.com.tw\/xstrader\/%e7%b4%8d%e9%81%94%e6%8b%89%e4%ba%9e-%e6%b2%83%e6%a3%ae%e5%8c%85%e7%b5%a1%e7%b7%9a-nadaraya-watson-envelope\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7d0d\u9054\u62c9\u4e9e-\u6c83\u68ee\u5305\u7d61\u7dda (Nadaraya-Watson Envelope)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>\u7d0d\u9054\u62c9\u4e9e-\u6c83\u68ee\u5305\u7d61\u7dda (Nadaraya-Watson Envelope)<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> \u662f\u8fd1\u5e74\u4f86\u5728\u91cf\u5316\u4ea4\u6613\u754c\uff08\u7279\u5225\u662f TradingView \u793e\u7fa4\uff09\u6975\u5176\u71b1\u9580\u7684\u6307\u6a19\u3002\u5b83\u8207\u50b3\u7d71\u5e03\u6797\u901a\u9053\uff08Bollinger Bands\uff09\u6700\u5927\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u5728\u65bc\uff0c\u5b83\u4e0d\u4f9d\u8cf4\u7c21\u55ae\u7684\u7b97\u8853\u5e73\u5747\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5229\u7528Kernel Regression\u6280\u8853\u4f86\u64ec\u5408\u50f9\u683c\u66f2\u7dda\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><b>1. \u6838\u5fc3\u6280\u8853\u539f\u7406\uff1a\u6838\u56de\u6b78 (Kernel Regression)<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u50b3\u7d71\u5747\u7dda\uff08SMA\/EMA\uff09\u662f\u7d66\u4e88\u904e\u53bb\u6578\u64da\u4e0d\u540c\u6b0a\u91cd\uff1b\u800c\u7d0d\u9054\u62c9\u4e9e-\u6c83\u68ee\uff08NW\uff09\u5247\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u975e\u53c3\u6578\uff08Non-parametric\uff09\u7684\u4f30\u8a08\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>\u6578\u5b78\u908f\u8f2f\uff1a<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> \u5b83\u5728\u6bcf\u4e00\u500b\u9ede\u4e0a\uff0c\u90fd\u6703\u89c0\u5bdf\u5168\u57df\u6216\u5c40\u90e8\u7a97\u53e3\u5167\u7684\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u4e26\u6839\u64da\u300c\u6642\u9593\u8ddd\u96e2\u300d\u4f7f\u7528\u4e00\u500b<\/span><b>\u6838\u51fd\u6578\uff08Kernel Function\uff09<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\uff08\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u9ad8\u65af\u6838 Gaussian Kernel \u6216\u6709\u7406\u4e8c\u6b21\u6838 Rational Quadratic Kernel\uff09\u4f86\u5206\u914d\u6b0a\u91cd\u3002<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>\u6b0a\u91cd\u516c\u5f0f\u6982\u5ff5\uff1a<\/b><b><br \/>\n<\/b><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-24876\" src=\"https:\/\/www.xq.com.tw\/xstrader\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/\u87a2\u5e55\u64f7\u53d6\u756b\u9762-2026-01-20-071340.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"345\" height=\"141\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.xq.com.tw\/xstrader\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/\u87a2\u5e55\u64f7\u53d6\u756b\u9762-2026-01-20-071340.png 345w, https:\/\/www.xq.com.tw\/xstrader\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/\u87a2\u5e55\u64f7\u53d6\u756b\u9762-2026-01-20-071340-300x123.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 345px) 100vw, 345px\" \/><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u5176\u4e2d h\u662f\u983b\u5bec (Bandwidth)\uff0c\u5b83\u6c7a\u5b9a\u4e86\u66f2\u7dda\u7684\u5e73\u6ed1\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3002\u983b\u5bec\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u66f2\u7dda\u8d8a\u5e73\u6ed1\u4f46\u53cd\u61c9\u8d8a\u6162\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>\u00a0<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">NW \u5305\u7d61\u7dda\u7531\u4e09\u689d\u7dda\u7d44\u6210\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>\u4e2d\u5fc3\u56de\u6b78\u7dda\uff1a<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> \u900f\u904e NW \u6838\u56de\u6b78\u8a08\u7b97\u51fa\u7684\u5e73\u6ed1\u50f9\u683c\u66f2\u7dda\u3002<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>\u4e0a\u4e0b\u8ecc\u9053\uff1a<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> \u901a\u5e38\u662f\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7dda\u52a0\u4e0a\u6216\u6e1b\u53bb\u300c\u5e73\u5747\u7d55\u5c0d\u504f\u5dee (MAD)\u300d\u6216\u300c\u5e73\u5747\u771f\u5be6\u7bc4\u570d (ATR)\u300d\u7684\u500d\u6578\u3002<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u9019\u4f7f\u5f97\u5b83\u5728\u8996\u89ba\u4e0a\u975e\u5e38\u7dca\u8cbc\u50f9\u683c\uff0c\u4e14\u5728\u8b58\u5225<\/span><b>\u6975\u7aef\u8d85\u8cb7\/\u8d85\u8ce3\u5340\u57df<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u6642\uff0c\u6bd4\u5e03\u6797\u901a\u9053\u66f4\u5177\u9069\u61c9\u6027\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5b83\u80fd\u6355\u6349\u975e\u7dda\u6027\u7684\u8da8\u52e2\u8b8a\u5316\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><\/h3>\n<h3><b>2.\u7d0d\u9054\u62c9\u4e9e-\u6c83\u68ee vs. \u5e03\u6797\u901a\u9053<\/b><\/h3>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td><b>\u7279\u6027<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>\u5e03\u6797\u901a\u9053 (Bollinger Bands)<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>NW \u5305\u7d61\u7dda (NW Envelope)<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>\u6578\u5b78\u57fa\u790e<\/b><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u6a19\u6e96\u5dee\u3001\u7c21\u55ae\u79fb\u52d5\u5e73\u5747<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u6838\u56de\u6b78 (\u975e\u7dda\u6027\u7d71\u8a08)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>\u9748\u654f\u5ea6<\/b><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u5c0d\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u654f\u611f\uff0c\u4f46\u6709\u5ef6\u9072<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u6975\u5176\u9748\u654f\uff0c\u80fd\u6355\u6349\u7d30\u5fae\u8f49\u6298<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>\u5f62\u72c0<\/b><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u8f03\u70ba\u50f5\u786c<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u975e\u5e38\u6d41\u66a2\u3001\u6709\u6a5f\u7684\u66f2\u7dda<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>\u4e3b\u8981\u7528\u9014<\/b><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u64e0\u58d3\u3001\u8da8\u52e2\u7a81\u7834<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u9006\u52e2\u64cd\u4f5c (Mean Reversion)\u3001\u6ce2\u6bb5\u9802\u90e8\u5e95\u90e8\u5206\u6790<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h3><b>3.XScript (XQ \u8a9e\u6cd5) \u5be6\u4f5c\u53c3\u8003<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u5e95\u4e0b\u662fAI\u5beb\u7684Sample code\uff0c\u6211\u53ea\u4fee\u6539\u4e86\u5167\u5efa\u51fd\u6578\u53ca\u8b8a\u6578\u7684\u540d\u7a31\uff0cAI\u4fc2\u4f7f\u7528\u8ff4\u5708\u4f86\u6a21\u64ec\u9ad8\u65af\u6838\u7684\u52a0\u6b0a\u8a08\u7b97\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<pre class='brush:xs'>\/\/ \u540d\u7a31\uff1aNadaraya-Watson Envelope (\u7c21\u5316\u7248)\r\n\/\/ -----------------------------------------------------------\r\nInput: h1(8, \"Bandwidth \u983b\u5bec\"), Mult(2, \"Multiplier \u500d\u6578\"), Window(50, \"\u8a08\u7b97\u7a97\u53e3\");\r\nVariable: i(0), weight(0), sumWeight(0), sumPrice(0), NW_Center(0), MAD(0);\r\n\r\n\/\/ 1. \u8a08\u7b97\u6838\u56de\u6b78\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7dda\r\nsumPrice = 0;\r\nsumWeight = 0;\r\n\r\nfor i = 0 to Window begin\r\n\/\/ \u9ad8\u65af\u6838\u6b0a\u91cd\u516c\u5f0f\uff1aexp(-(\u8ddd\u96e2^2) \/ (2 * h^2))\r\nweight = Expvalue(-1 * Power(i, 2) \/ (2 * Power(h1, 2)));\r\nsumPrice = sumPrice + Close[i] * weight;\r\nsumWeight = sumWeight + weight;\r\nend;\r\n\r\nif sumWeight &lt;&gt; 0 then NW_Center = sumPrice \/ sumWeight;\r\n\r\n\/\/ 2. \u8a08\u7b97\u5e73\u5747\u7d55\u5c0d\u504f\u5dee (MAD) \u4f5c\u70ba\u8ecc\u9053\u5bec\u5ea6\r\nMAD = Average(AbsValue(Close - NW_Center), Window);\r\n\r\n\/\/ 3. \u7e6a\u88fd\u7d50\u679c\r\nPlot1(NW_Center, \"NW \u4e2d\u5fc3\u7dda\");\r\nPlot2(NW_Center + Mult * MAD, \"\u4e0a\u8ecc\");\r\nPlot3(NW_Center - Mult * MAD, \"\u4e0b\u8ecc\");<\/pre>\n<p>\u6839\u64da\u9019\u500b\u8173\u672c\u8a08\u7b97\u51fa\u4f86\u7684\u6307\u6a19\uff0c\u5b83\u7684\u5448\u73fe\u65b9\u5f0f\u5982\u4e0b\u5716<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-24878\" src=\"https:\/\/www.xq.com.tw\/xstrader\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/\u87a2\u5e55\u64f7\u53d6\u756b\u9762-2026-01-20-072017.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1840\" height=\"769\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.xq.com.tw\/xstrader\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/\u87a2\u5e55\u64f7\u53d6\u756b\u9762-2026-01-20-072017.png 1840w, https:\/\/www.xq.com.tw\/xstrader\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/\u87a2\u5e55\u64f7\u53d6\u756b\u9762-2026-01-20-072017-300x125.png 300w, https:\/\/www.xq.com.tw\/xstrader\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/\u87a2\u5e55\u64f7\u53d6\u756b\u9762-2026-01-20-072017-1024x428.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.xq.com.tw\/xstrader\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/\u87a2\u5e55\u64f7\u53d6\u756b\u9762-2026-01-20-072017-768x321.png 768w, https:\/\/www.xq.com.tw\/xstrader\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/\u87a2\u5e55\u64f7\u53d6\u756b\u9762-2026-01-20-072017-1536x642.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.xq.com.tw\/xstrader\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/\u87a2\u5e55\u64f7\u53d6\u756b\u9762-2026-01-20-072017-660x276.png 660w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1840px) 100vw, 1840px\" \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u7d0d\u9054\u62c9\u4e9e-\u6c83\u68ee\u5305\u7d61\u7dda (Nadaraya-Watson Envelope) \u662f\u8fd1\u5e74\u4f86\u5728\u91cf\u5316\u4ea4\u6613\u754c\uff08\u7279\u5225\u662f TradingView \u793e\u7fa4\uff09\u6975\u5176\u71b1\u9580\u7684\u6307\u6a19\u3002\u5b83\u8207\u50b3\u7d71\u5e03\u6797\u901a\u9053\uff08Bollinger Bands\uff09\u6700\u5927\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u5728\u65bc\uff0c\u5b83\u4e0d\u4f9d\u8cf4\u7c21\u55ae\u7684\u7b97\u8853\u5e73\u5747\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5229\u7528Kernel Regression\u6280\u8853\u4f86\u64ec\u5408\u50f9\u683c\u66f2\u2026 <span class=\"read-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.xq.com.tw\/xstrader\/%e7%b4%8d%e9%81%94%e6%8b%89%e4%ba%9e-%e6%b2%83%e6%a3%ae%e5%8c%85%e7%b5%a1%e7%b7%9a-nadaraya-watson-envelope\/\">\u95b1\u8b80\u66f4\u591a &raquo;<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-24873","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-7"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\r\n<title>\u7d0d\u9054\u62c9\u4e9e-\u6c83\u68ee\u5305\u7d61\u7dda (Nadaraya-Watson Envelope) - XQ\u5b98\u65b9\u90e8\u843d\u683c<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\r\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.xq.com.tw\/xstrader\/\u7d0d\u9054\u62c9\u4e9e-\u6c83\u68ee\u5305\u7d61\u7dda-nadaraya-watson-envelope\/\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"zh_TW\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u7d0d\u9054\u62c9\u4e9e-\u6c83\u68ee\u5305\u7d61\u7dda (Nadaraya-Watson Envelope) - XQ\u5b98\u65b9\u90e8\u843d\u683c\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u7d0d\u9054\u62c9\u4e9e-\u6c83\u68ee\u5305\u7d61\u7dda (Nadaraya-Watson Envelope) \u662f\u8fd1\u5e74\u4f86\u5728\u91cf\u5316\u4ea4\u6613\u754c\uff08\u7279\u5225\u662f TradingView \u793e\u7fa4\uff09\u6975\u5176\u71b1\u9580\u7684\u6307\u6a19\u3002\u5b83\u8207\u50b3\u7d71\u5e03\u6797\u901a\u9053\uff08Bollinger Bands\uff09\u6700\u5927\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u5728\u65bc\uff0c\u5b83\u4e0d\u4f9d\u8cf4\u7c21\u55ae\u7684\u7b97\u8853\u5e73\u5747\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5229\u7528Kernel Regression\u6280\u8853\u4f86\u64ec\u5408\u50f9\u683c\u66f2\u2026 \u95b1\u8b80\u66f4\u591a &raquo;\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.xq.com.tw\/xstrader\/\u7d0d\u9054\u62c9\u4e9e-\u6c83\u68ee\u5305\u7d61\u7dda-nadaraya-watson-envelope\/\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"XQ\u5b98\u65b9\u90e8\u843d\u683c\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-01-19T23:29:23+00:00\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-01-19T23:31:23+00:00\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"\u767c\u8ca1\u6a58\u5b50\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u4f5c\u8005:\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"\u767c\u8ca1\u6a58\u5b50\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"\u9810\u4f30\u95b1\u8b80\u6642\u9593\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 \u5206\u9418\" \/>\r\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" 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