{"id":25121,"date":"2026-03-03T07:54:43","date_gmt":"2026-03-02T23:54:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.xq.com.tw\/xstrader\/?p=25121"},"modified":"2026-03-03T07:54:43","modified_gmt":"2026-03-02T23:54:43","slug":"%e6%96%af%e5%9d%a6%e5%88%a9%c2%b7%e5%be%b7%e9%ad%af%e8%82%af%e7%b1%b3%e5%8b%92-stanley-f-druckenmiller%e7%9a%84%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e5%93%b2%e5%ad%b8","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.xq.com.tw\/xstrader\/%e6%96%af%e5%9d%a6%e5%88%a9%c2%b7%e5%be%b7%e9%ad%af%e8%82%af%e7%b1%b3%e5%8b%92-stanley-f-druckenmiller%e7%9a%84%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e5%93%b2%e5%ad%b8\/","title":{"rendered":"\u65af\u5766\u5229\u00b7\u5fb7\u9b6f\u80af\u7c73\u52d2 (Stanley F. Druckenmiller)\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u54f2\u5b78"},"content":{"rendered":"

Fomo\u7814\u7a76\u9662\u6628\u5929\u5beb\u4e86\u4e00\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u5982\u9023\u7d50<\/a>\uff0c\u9019\u6587\u7ae0\u662f\u6469\u6839\u58eb\u4e39\u5229\u5c0d\u50b3\u5947\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba Stan Druckenmiller \u9032\u884c\u4e86\u4e00\u5834\u6df1\u5ea6\u8a2a\u8ac7\u7684\u5167\u5bb9\u3002\u6211\u8acbGemini\u628a\u9019\u4f4d\u5927\u795e\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u54f2\u5b78\u5beb\u6210Xscript\u7684\u9078\u80a1\u8173\u672c\uff0c\u4eca\u5929\u6211\u5011\u5c31\u4f86\u804a\u4e00\u804a\u9019\u4f4d\u5927\u795e\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6211\u5011\u8981\u5982\u4f55\u900f\u904eAI\u7684\u5354\u52a9\uff0c\u8907\u88fd\u9019\u4f4d\u5927\u795e\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u54f2\u5b78\u5230\u53f0\u80a1\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u4e2d\u3002<\/p>\n

Druckenmiller\u662f\u500b\u731b\u4eba\uff0c\u4ed6\u539f\u672c\u5728\u5bc6\u897f\u6839\u5927\u5b78\u5538\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u535a\u58eb\uff0c\u5538\u4e00\u5538\u767c\u73fe\u5b78\u8853\u754c\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u6a21\u578b\u904e\u65bc\u50f5\u5316\u3001\u4e0d\u5177\u5099\u5e02\u5834\u5be6\u6230\u50f9\u503c\u800c\u6c7a\u5b9a\u9000\u5b78\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u6295\u5165\u91d1\u878d\u696d\u3002<\/p>\n

1977\u5e74\u4ed6\u4ee5\u53bbPittsburgh National Bank\u7576\u5be6\u7fd2\u751f\uff0c\u50c5\u82b1\u4e00\u5e74\u6642\u9593\uff0c\u4fbf\u56e0\u5c55\u73fe\u51fa\u5353\u8d8a\u7684\u5546\u696d\u76f4\u89ba\u8207\u5206\u6790\u80fd\u529b\uff0c25 \u6b72\u5c31\u88ab\u62d4\u64e2\u70ba\u80a1\u7968\u7814\u7a76\u90e8\u4e3b\u7ba1\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4ed6\u5728\u9019\u500b\u8077\u52d9\u505a\u4e86\u56db\u5e74\uff0c1981\u5e74\u5275\u8fa6\u4e86\u5c6c\u65bc\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u907f\u96aa\u57fa\u91d1Duquesne Capital Management <\/b><\/p>\n

\u9019\u500b\u57fa\u91d1\u4ee5 100 \u842c\u7f8e\u5143\u5275\u7acb \uff0c\u6700\u9ad8\u7ba1\u7406\u8cc7\u7522\u898f\u6a21\u9054 120 \u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/span>\u00a030 \u5e74\u671f\u9593\uff0c\u7de0\u9020\u4e86<\/span>\u5e73\u5747\u5e74\u5316\u5831\u916c\u7387\u7d04 30%<\/b> \u7684\u9a5a\u4eba\u7d00\u9304\uff0c\u4e14<\/span>\u5f9e\u672a\u6709\u904e\u4efb\u4f55\u8667\u640d\u7684\u5e74\u5ea6<\/b>\uff08\u5305\u542b 2000\u5e74\u7db2\u8def\u6ce1\u6cac\u53ca2008 \u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u671f\u9593\u4ecd\u7dad\u6301\u6b63\u5831\u916c\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4ed6\u6700\u77e5\u540d\u7684\u6230\u5f79\u662f\uff0c\u4ed6\u66fe\u5f9e1988\u52302000\u5e74\u517c\u4efb\u904e\u7d22\u7f85\u65af\u91cf\u5b50\u57fa\u91d1\u7684\u64cd\u76e4\u624b\uff0c\u57281992\u5e74\u91cd\u5009\u653e\u7a7a\u82f1\u938a\uff0c\u70ba\u91cf\u5b50\u57fa\u91d1\u4e00\u5929\u5c31\u8cfa\u4e8610\u5104\u7f8e\u91d1\u3002<\/p>\n

2010\u5e74\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u4ed6\u5c31\u628a\u9322\u90fd\u9000\u5b8c\u7d66\u5ba2\u6236\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u5c08\u6ce8\u65bc\u7ba1\u7406\u81ea\u6709\u8cc7\u91d1\uff0c\u6301\u7e8c\u6d3b\u8e8d\u65bc\u5168\u7403\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u8fd1\u5e74\u5728 AI \u6d6a\u6f6e\uff08\u5982 Nvidia\uff09\u8207\u751f\u6280\u91ab\u7642\u7b49\u9818\u57df\u4ea6\u6709\u7cbe\u6e96\u7684\u4f48\u5c40\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u9019\u6a23\u4e00\u4f4d\u5982\u795e\u4e00\u822c\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u908f\u8f2f\u5fc5\u6709\u503c\u5f97\u6211\u5011\u5b78\u7fd2\u7684\u5730\u65b9<\/p>\n

Fomo\u7814\u7a76\u9662\u9019\u4e00\u7bc7\u5beb\u7684\u5f88\u597d\uff0c\u5167\u5bb9\u8acb\u5927\u5bb6\u9ede\u9023\u7d50\u9032\u53bb\u770b\uff0c\u57fa\u65bc\u7248\u6b0a\u6211\u4e0d\u597d\u591a\u5beb<\/p>\n

\u4e0d\u904e\u6211\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u9019\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u63d0\u7684\u9019\u4e94\u9ede\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u53e6\u5916\u5206\u4eab\u5e7e\u9ede<\/p>\n

\u4e00\uff0c\u6c38\u9060\u805a\u7126 18 \u5230 24 \u500b\u6708\u5f8c\u7684\u672a\u4f86<\/span><\/h2>\n

Druckenmiller \u5f9e\u4e0d\u6839\u64da\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u8ca1\u5831\u6216\u660e\u5929\u7684\u65b0\u805e\u4f86\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u4ed6\u8a8d\u70ba\u73fe\u5728\u7684\u6578\u64da\u65e9\u5c31\u88ab\u5e02\u5834\u5b9a\u50f9\u4e86\u3002 \u4ed6\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u662f\u60f3\u50cf\u300c18 \u5230 24 \u500b\u6708\u5f8c\uff0c\u9019\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\u6216\u9019\u500b\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u6a23\u8c8c\u6703\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\uff1f\u300d\u7136\u5f8c\u5728\u73fe\u5728\u5c0b\u627e\u80fd\u5920\u5f15\u767c\u90a3\u7a2e\u6539\u8b8a\u7684\u50ac\u5316\u5291\u3002\u4ed6\u8cb7\u7684\u4e0d\u662f\u516c\u53f8\u73fe\u5728\u7684\u50f9\u503c\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u8cb7\u5b83\u5169\u5e74\u5f8c\u7684\u8b8a\u5316\u7387\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4ed6\u7684\u9019\u500b\u89c0\u9ede\u6211\u8d85\u7d1a\u8a8d\u540c<\/p>\n

\u4e8c\uff0c\u5c07\u6280\u8853\u5206\u6790\u4f5c\u70ba\u300c\u6e2c\u6eab\u8a08\u300d\u8207\u300c\u8a08\u6642\u5668\u300d<\/span><\/h2>\n

\u4ed6\u4e0d\u8ff7\u4fe1\u7c21\u55ae\u7684\u5716\u8868\u578b\u614b\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u6975\u5ea6\u4f9d\u8cf4\u6280\u8853\u5206\u6790\u4f86\u9a57\u8b49\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u89c0\u9ede\u3002 \u5982\u679c\u4ed6\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u7814\u7a76\u986f\u793a\u67d0\u6a94\u80a1\u7968\u6975\u4f73\uff0c\u4f46\u5716\u8868\u537b\u5448\u73fe\u4e0d\u65b7\u7834\u5e95\u7684\u7a7a\u982d\u8d70\u52e2\uff0c\u4ed6\u6703\u9078\u64c7\u89c0\u671b\uff0c\u8a8d\u70ba\u300c\u5e02\u5834\u4e00\u5b9a\u770b\u5230\u4e86\u6211\u6c92\u770b\u5230\u7684\u6771\u897f\u300d\u3002\u4ed6\u5229\u7528\u6280\u8853\u5206\u6790\u4f86\u611f\u53d7\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u60c5\u7dd2\u3001\u5c0b\u627e\u7d55\u4f73\u7684\u9032\u5834\u6642\u6a5f\uff08Timing\uff09\uff0c\u4e26\u8a2d\u5b9a\u56b4\u683c\u7684\u505c\u640d\u9ede\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u770b\u5b8c\u4e86\u4ed6\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u54f2\u5b78\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u6211\u60f3\u8981\u8ddf\u5927\u5bb6\u5206\u4eab\u6211\u5982\u4f55\u7528AI+XQ\u4f86\u8907\u88fd\u4ed6\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u54f2\u5b78<\/p>\n

\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b65\uff1a\u00a0 \u6211\u628aFomo\u7814\u7a76\u9662\u7684\u9019\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u8cbc\u5230 gemini\u4e0a\uff0c\u7136\u5f8cgemini\u5c31\u5e6b\u6211\u6574\u7406\u51fa\u9019\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u7684\u91cd\u9ede\uff0c\u7136\u5f8cgemini\u554f\u6211\u8981\u4e0d\u8981\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u63a2\u8a0e\u5982\u4f55\u5229\u7528\u7a0b\u5f0f\uff08\u4f8b\u5982 XScript \u6216 Python\uff09\u5c07\u9019\u4e9b\u54f2\u5b78\u8f49\u5316\u70ba\u5177\u9ad4\u7684\u9078\u80a1\u6ffe\u7db2\u55ce\uff1f\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\u8a66\u8457\u69cb\u601d\u4e00\u6bb5\u908f\u8f2f\uff0c\u5c08\u9580\u7be9\u9078\u51fa\u300c\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u8655\u65bc\u6b77\u53f2\u4f4e\u4f4d\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd1\u5169\u5b63\u7814\u767c\u8cbb\u7528\u537b\u7570\u5e38\u66b4\u589e\u300d\u7684\u6f5b\u5728\u8f49\u578b\u80a1\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6211\u8aaa\u00a0 yes\uff0cgemini\u5c31\u5e6b\u6211\u751f\u6210\u4e86\u4e00\u4efdxscript\u7684\u9078\u80a1\u8173\u672c<\/p>\n

\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b65\uff0c\u6211\u628a\u9019\u8173\u672c\u8cbc\u5230XQ\u7684 Xscript\u7de8\u8f2f\u5668\u53bb\u7de8\u8b6f<\/p>\n

\u7136\u5f8c\u5c31\u51fa\u73fe\u4e0b\u9762\u7684\u932f\u8aa4\u8a0a\u606f<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u7b2c\u4e09\u6b65\uff1a \u4fee\u6b63\u8173\u672c<\/p>\n

\u6211\u770b\u4e86\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u767c\u73fe\u4ed6\u7684\u8173\u672c\u4e2d\u7528\u4e86GetField(“\u71df\u696d\u7814\u767c\u8cbb\u7528”, “Q”); \u4f46Xscript\u7684\u7814\u767c\u8cbb\u7528\u6b04\u4f4d\uff0c\u4e26\u6c92\u6709\u71df\u696d\u5169\u500b\u5b57\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u5c31\u76f4\u63a5\u628a\u9019\u5169\u500b\u5b57\u53bb\u6389\uff0c\u91cd\u65b0\u7de8\u8b6f\uff0c\u5c31\u6210\u529f\u4e86<\/p>\n

\u6210\u529f\u5f8c\u7684\u8173\u672c\u5982\u4e0b<\/p>\n

\/\/ \u8173\u672c\u540d\u7a31\uff1a\u8f49\u578b\u8ff7\u9727\u6dd8\u91d1 (\u4f4e\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4 + \u7814\u767c\u7206\u589e)\r\n\/\/ \u8cc7\u6599\u983b\u7387\uff1a\u65e5\r\n\r\n\/\/ \u53c3\u6578\u8a2d\u5b9a\r\ninput: PE_Length(750, \"\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u6b77\u53f2\u5340\u9593(\u5929\uff0c\u9810\u8a2d\u7d043\u5e74)\");\r\ninput: PE_Threshold(1.2, \"\u6b77\u53f2\u4f4e\u4f4d\u5bb9\u5fcd\u500d\u6578(1.2=\u8ddd\u6700\u4f4e\u9ede20%\u5167)\");\r\ninput: RD_Growth(30, \"\u8fd1\u5169\u5b63\u7814\u767c\u8cbb\u7528\u5e74\u589e\u7387\u9580\u6abb(%)\");\r\n\r\n\/\/ --- \u689d\u4ef6\u4e00\uff1a\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u8655\u65bc\u6b77\u53f2\u4f4e\u4f4d ---\r\nvalue1 = GetField(\"\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\", \"D\");\r\nvalue2 = Lowest(value1[1], PE_Length); \/\/ \u904e\u53bbN\u5929\u7684\u6700\u4f4e\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\r\n\r\n\/\/ \u78ba\u4fdd\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u70ba\u6b63\u503c(\u6392\u9664\u8667\u640d)\uff0c\u4e14\u76ee\u524d\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u63a5\u8fd1\u6b77\u53f2\u6700\u4f4e\u9ede\r\ncondition1 = value1 > 0 and value1 <= (value2 * PE_Threshold);\r\n\r\n\r\n\/\/ --- \u689d\u4ef6\u4e8c\uff1a\u8fd1\u5169\u5b63\u7814\u767c\u8cbb\u7528\u7570\u5e38\u66b4\u589e ---\r\n\/\/ \u53d6\u5f97\u7814\u767c\u8cbb\u7528 (\u4ee5\u5b63\u70ba\u983b\u7387)\r\nvalue3 = GetField(\"\u7814\u767c\u8cbb\u7528\", \"Q\"); \/\/ \u6700\u8fd1\u4e00\u5b63\r\nvalue4 = GetField(\"\u7814\u767c\u8cbb\u7528\", \"Q\")[1]; \/\/ \u524d\u4e00\u5b63\r\nvalue5 = GetField(\"\u7814\u767c\u8cbb\u7528\", \"Q\")[4]; \/\/ \u53bb\u5e74\u540c\u671f (\u6700\u8fd1\u4e00\u5b63)\r\nvalue6 = GetField(\"\u7814\u767c\u8cbb\u7528\", \"Q\")[5]; \/\/ \u53bb\u5e74\u540c\u671f (\u524d\u4e00\u5b63)\r\n\r\ncondition2 = false;\r\n\/\/ \u78ba\u4fdd\u53bb\u5e74\u540c\u671f\u7684\u7814\u767c\u8cbb\u7528\u5927\u65bc0\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u5206\u6bcd\u70ba\u96f6\u7684\u904b\u7b97\u932f\u8aa4\r\nif (value5 + value6) > 0 then begin\r\n\/\/ \u8a08\u7b97\u8fd1\u5169\u5b63\u7814\u767c\u8cbb\u7528\u7e3d\u548c\u7684\u5e74\u6210\u9577\u7387\r\nvalue7 = ((value3 + value4) - (value5 + value6)) \/ (value5 + value6) * 100;\r\n\r\n\/\/ \u82e5\u6210\u9577\u7387\u7a81\u7834\u9580\u6abb\uff0c\u5247\u89f8\u767c\u689d\u4ef6\r\nif value7 >= RD_Growth then condition2 = true;\r\nend;\r\n\r\n\r\n\/\/ --- \u7d9c\u5408\u7be9\u9078\u8207\u8f38\u51fa ---\r\nif condition1 and condition2 then begin\r\nret = 1;\r\noutputField1(value1, \"\u76ee\u524d\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\");\r\noutputField2(value7, \"\u8fd1\u5169\u5b63\u7814\u767c\u5e74\u589e\u7387(%)\");\r\noutputField3(value3 + value4, \"\u8fd1\u5169\u5b63\u7814\u767c\u7e3d\u984d(\u767e\u842c)\");\r\nend;<\/pre>\n
\u6211\u628a\u5b83\u62ff\u4f86\u56de\u6e2c\u4e86\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u6301\u6709\u5929\u6578\u76f4\u63a5\u8a2d\u70ba120\u5929\uff0c\u6211\u7528\u7684\u662f\u666e\u901a\u80a1\u6263\u9664KY\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u80a1\u53ca\u71df\u5efa\u80a1<\/p>\n
\u56de\u6e2c\u5831\u544a\u5982\u4e0b<\/p>\n
\"\"<\/p>\n
\u6211\u628a\u9019\u500b\u9078\u80a1\u52a0\u5230\u6bcf\u65e5\u81ea\u52d5\u57f7\u884c\u7684\u6e05\u55ae\u4e2d\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u77e5\u9053\u6709\u90a3\u4e00\u6a94\u53f0\u80a1\u7b26\u5408Druckenmiller\u7684\u9078\u80a1\u6a19\u6e96\uff0c\u63a5\u4e0b\u4f86\u6211\u5c31\u628a\u9019\u6a94\u80a1\u7968\u653e\u5230\u81ea\u9078\u80a1\uff0c\u7528\u5176\u4ed6\u6280\u8853\u5206\u6790\u6307\u6a19\u4f86\u7814\u5224\u662f\u5426\u51fa\u73fe\u9032\u5834\u8a0a\u865f<\/span><\/p>\n
 <\/p>\n
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