{"id":25158,"date":"2026-03-11T05:38:36","date_gmt":"2026-03-10T21:38:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.xq.com.tw\/xstrader\/?p=25158"},"modified":"2026-03-11T05:38:36","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T21:38:36","slug":"%e5%bd%bc%e5%be%97%e6%8f%90%e7%88%be%e7%9a%84%e9%81%b8%e8%82%a1%e9%82%8f%e8%bc%af","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.xq.com.tw\/xstrader\/%e5%bd%bc%e5%be%97%e6%8f%90%e7%88%be%e7%9a%84%e9%81%b8%e8%82%a1%e9%82%8f%e8%bc%af\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5f7c\u5f97\u63d0\u723e\u7684\u9078\u80a1\u908f\u8f2f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u5f7c\u5f97\u00b7\u63d0\u723e\uff08Peter Andreas Thiel\uff0c1967\u5e7410\u670811\u65e5\uff0d\uff09\u662f\u8457\u540d\u7684\u5fb7\u88d4\u7f8e\u7c4d\u4f01\u696d\u5bb6\u3001\u98a8\u96aa\u6295\u8cc7\u5bb6\u3001\u5c0d\u6c96\u57fa\u91d1\u7d93\u7406\u4eba\u8207\u653f\u6cbb\u8a55\u8ad6\u5bb6\uff0c\u88ab\u8b7d\u70ba\u77fd\u8c37\u6700\u5177\u5f71\u97ff\u529b\u7684\u300c\u6559\u7236\u7d1a\u300d\u601d\u60f3\u5bb6\u3002\u4ed6\u4ee5\u5171\u540c\u5275\u8fa6 PayPal \u53ca\u5927\u6578\u64da\u5206\u6790\u5de8\u982d Palantir Technologies \u805e\u540d\uff0c\u4e14\u8eab\u70ba Facebook\uff08\u73fe Meta\uff09\u7684\u9996\u4f4d\u5916\u90e8\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\uff0c\u5176\u6295\u8cc7\u773c\u5149\u7cbe\u6e96\u3002\u4ed6\u6240\u63d0\u5021\u7684\u300c\u5f9e\u96f6\u5230\u4e00\u300d\u5275\u65b0\u7406\u5ff5\u8207\u5c0d\u58df\u65b7\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u7368\u5230\u898b\u89e3\uff0c\u6df1\u523b\u5730\u91cd\u5851\u4e86\u7576\u4ee3\u79d1\u6280\u5275\u696d\u8207\u6295\u8cc7\u754c\u7684\u904a\u6232\u898f\u5247\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u63d0\u723e\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u54f2\u5b78\u6838\u5fc3\u5728\u65bc\u300c\u9006\u5411\u6295\u8cc7\u300d\uff08Contrarianism\uff09\u8207\u300c\u58df\u65b7\u300d\u3002\u4ed6\u8a8d\u70ba\u7af6\u722d\u662f\u7d66\u5931\u6557\u8005\u6e96\u5099\u7684\uff0c\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u5546\u696d\u50f9\u503c\u4f86\u81ea\u65bc\u5275\u9020\u51fa\u7368\u4e00\u7121\u4e8c\u3001\u80fd\u7522\u751f\u58df\u65b7\u6548\u76ca\u7684\u516c\u53f8\uff08\u5373\u300c\u5f9e\u96f6\u5230\u4e00\u300d\u7684\u5782\u76f4\u9032\u6b65\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u300c\u5f9e\u4e00\u5230\u591a\u300d\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u8907\u88fd\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u4ed6\u504f\u597d\u5177\u6709\u5f37\u5927\u6280\u8853\u58c1\u58d8\u3001\u986f\u8457\u7db2\u8def\u6548\u61c9\u6216\u7368\u7279\u54c1\u724c\u512a\u52e2\u7684\u4f01\u696d\u3002\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><b>\u7368\u5360\u6027\u8207\u5b9a\u50f9\u6b0a\u7be9\u9078 (Monopoly &amp; Pricing Power)<\/b><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><b>\u6bdb\u5229\u7387 (Gross Margin)<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\uff1a&gt;60&gt;60\u3002\u9ad8\u6bdb\u5229\u662f\u8edf\u9ad4\u6216\u79d1\u6280\u58df\u65b7\u7684\u8ca1\u52d9\u7279\u5fb5\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u6975\u5f37\u7684\u5b9a\u50f9\u6b0a\u8207\u908a\u969b\u6210\u672c\u8da8\u8fd1\u65bc\u96f6\u7684\u53ef\u64f4\u5c55\u6027\u3002<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><b>\u6de8\u5229\u7387\u6210\u9577\u7387<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\uff1a\u904e\u53bb 3 \u5e74\u5e73\u5747 &gt;15&gt;15\u3002\u986f\u793a\u96a8\u8457\u898f\u6a21\u64f4\u5927\uff0c\u7db2\u8def\u6548\u61c9 (Network Effect) \u6b63\u5728\u8f49\u5316\u70ba\u5be6\u969b\u7372\u5229\u3002<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><b>\u5e02\u5834\u4f54\u6709\u7387\u512a\u52e2 \u26a0\ufe0f<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\uff1a\u8a72\u516c\u53f8\u5728\u7d30\u5206\u9818\u57df\u5fc5\u9808\u662f\u7d55\u5c0d\u9818\u5c0e\u8005\uff08\u91cf\u5316\u4ee3\u7406\u6307\u6a19\uff1a\u71df\u6536\u898f\u6a21\u5927\u65bc\u7b2c\u4e8c\u540d\u7af6\u722d\u5c0d\u624b 2 \u500d\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u6216\u76f8\u5c0d\u5f37\u5f31\u6307\u6a19 RS rating &gt; 90\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><b>\u5de5\u7a0b\u8207\u6280\u8853\u7a81\u7834 (The 10x Improvement)<\/b><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"3\"><b>\u7814\u767c\u6295\u5165\u6bd4 (R&amp;D\/Sales)<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\uff1a&gt;20&gt;20\u3002\u6301\u7e8c\u7684\u9ad8\u7814\u767c\u6295\u5165\u662f\u7dad\u6301\u6280\u8853\u9818\u5148\uff08\u6bd4\u8d77\u7af6\u722d\u5c0d\u624b\u597d 10 \u500d\uff09\u7684\u5fc5\u8981\u689d\u4ef6\u3002<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"3\"><b>\u71df\u6536\u6210\u9577\u7387 (Revenue Growth)<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\uff1a&gt;30&gt;30\u3002\u5fc5\u9808\u8655\u65bc\u9ad8\u901f\u64f4\u5f35\u671f\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5728 Thiel \u7684\u89c0\u9ede\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f4e\u6210\u9577\u4ee3\u8868\u7af6\u722d\u6fc0\u70c8\u3002<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u5275\u8fa6\u4eba\u63a7\u5236\u6b0a\u8207\u8a98\u56e0 (Founder-Led &amp; Skin in the Game)<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><b>\u5167\u90e8\u4eba\u6301\u80a1\u6bd4\u4f8b<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\uff1a\u5275\u8fa6\u4eba\/\u7ba1\u7406\u5c64\u6301\u80a1 &gt;5~10%\u3002Thiel \u504f\u597d\u5275\u8fa6\u4eba\u89aa\u81ea\u638c\u8235\u7684\u4f01\u696d\u3002<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u53cd\u5411\u8207\u88ab\u4f4e\u4f30\u7684\u6210\u9577 (Contrarian Truth)<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"3\"><b>\u6a5f\u69cb\u6301\u80a1\u6bd4\u4f8b<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\uff1a\u521d\u671f\u53ef\u8a2d\u5b9a &lt;40 \u3002Thiel \u5c0b\u627e\u7684\u662f\u5927\u773e\u5c1a\u672a\u767c\u73fe\u7684\u300c\u79d8\u5bc6\u300d\uff0c\u82e5\u6a5f\u69cb\u6301\u80a1\u904e\u9ad8\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u5171\u8b58\u5df2\u5f62\u6210\uff0c\u8d85\u984d\u5831\u916c\u964d\u4f4e\u3002<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"3\"><b>PEG (\u672c\u76ca\u6210\u9577\u6bd4)<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\uff1a\u96d6\u7136 Thiel \u4e0d\u91cd\u4f30\u503c\uff0c\u4f46\u70ba\u4e86\u91cf\u5316\u5b89\u5168\u6027\uff0c\u53ef\u8a2d\u5b9a PEG&lt;2.0 \uff0c\u78ba\u4fdd\u6210\u9577\u672a\u88ab\u6975\u5ea6\u904e\u5ea6\u5b9a\u50f9\u3002<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u73fe\u91d1\u6d41\u6301\u4e45\u6027 (Durability)<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"3\"><b>\u81ea\u7531\u73fe\u91d1\u6d41 (FCF) \u8f49\u6b63\u9810\u671f<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\uff1a\u96d6\u7136\u76ee\u524d\u53ef\u8667\u640d\uff0c\u4f46\u7d93\u71df\u73fe\u91d1\u6d41\u9700\u5448\u73fe\u9010\u5b63\u6539\u5584\u8da8\u52e2\uff0c\u6216\u7b26\u5408\u300c40\u6cd5\u5247\u300d(Rule of 40: \u71df\u6536\u6210\u9577\u7387 + \u5229\u6f64\u7387 &gt; 40%)\u3002<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u6839\u64da\u4e0a\u8ff0\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\uff0c\u6211\u5beb\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u8173\u672c\u5982\u4e0b<\/p>\n<pre class='brush:xs'>\/\/ \u8173\u672c\u540d\u7a31\uff1a\u63d0\u723e\u300c\u5f9e\u96f6\u5230\u4e00\u300d\u58df\u65b7\u7368\u89d2\u7378\u6ffe\u7db2\r\n\/\/ \u8cc7\u6599\u983b\u7387\uff1a\u65e5 (\u7d50\u5408\u5b63\u8ca1\u5831\u8207\u6708\u71df\u6536)\r\n\r\n\/\/ --- \u53c3\u6578\u8a2d\u5b9a ---\r\ninput: Margin_Threshold(40, \"\u6bdb\u5229\u7387\u9580\u6abb(%) -&gt; \u5c0b\u627e\u5b9a\u50f9\u6b0a\u8207\u58df\u65b7\u529b\");\r\ninput: RD_Ratio_Threshold(8, \"\u7814\u767c\u8cbb\u7528\u7387\u9580\u6abb(%) -&gt; \u5c0b\u627e\u6975\u81f4\u7684\u6280\u8853\u58c1\u58d8\");\r\ninput: Rev_Growth(20, \"\u8fd1\u4e09\u6708\u71df\u6536\u5e74\u589e\u7387(%) -&gt; \u5c0b\u627e\u7db2\u8def\u6548\u61c9\u8207\u63a0\u596a\u5f0f\u6210\u9577\");\r\ninput: RuleOf40_Limit(40, \"4.Rule of 40 \u4e0b\u9650\");\r\ninput: Insider_Limit(5, \"5.\u8463\u76e3\u6301\u80a1\u4e0b\u9650(%)\");\r\ninput: PEG_Limit(2.0, \"7.PEG\u4e0a\u9650\");\r\n\r\n\/\/ --- \u689d\u4ef6\u4e00\uff1a\u7d55\u5c0d\u7684\u5b9a\u50f9\u6b0a (\u9ad8\u6bdb\u5229) ---\r\nvalue1 = GetField(\"\u71df\u696d\u6bdb\u5229\u7387\", \"Q\"); \r\ncondition1 = value1 &gt;= Margin_Threshold;\r\n\r\n\r\n\/\/ --- \u689d\u4ef6\u4e8c\uff1a\u6df1\u539a\u7684\u6280\u8853\u58c1\u58d8 (\u9ad8\u7814\u767c\u6295\u5165) ---\r\n\/\/ \u8a08\u7b97\u300c\u7814\u767c\u8cbb\u7528\u7387\u300d\uff1a\u71df\u696d\u7814\u767c\u8cbb\u7528 \/ \u71df\u696d\u6536\u5165\u6de8\u984d\r\nvalue2 = GetField(\"\u7814\u767c\u8cbb\u7528\", \"Q\");\r\nvalue3 = GetField(\"\u71df\u696d\u6536\u5165\u6de8\u984d\", \"Q\");\r\nvalue4 = 0;\r\n\r\ncondition2 = false;\r\nif value3 &gt; 0 then begin\r\nvalue4 = (value2 \/ value3) * 100;\r\n\/\/ \u7814\u767c\u6295\u5165\u4f54\u6bd4\u5fc5\u9808\u9ad8\u65bc\u8a2d\u5b9a\u9580\u6abb\r\nif value4 &gt;= RD_Ratio_Threshold then condition2 = true;\r\nend;\r\n\r\n\r\n\/\/ --- \u689d\u4ef6\u4e09\uff1a\u7db2\u8def\u6548\u61c9\u8207\u898f\u6a21\u5316 (\u9ad8\u901f\u4e14\u6301\u7e8c\u7684\u71df\u6536\u6210\u9577) ---\r\n\/\/ \u4f7f\u7528\u8fd1\u4e09\u500b\u6708\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u71df\u6536\u5e74\u589e\u7387\uff0c\u904e\u6ffe\u6389\u55ae\u6708\u5165\u5e33\u7684\u96dc\u8a0a\r\nvalue5 = Average(GetField(\"\u6708\u71df\u6536\u5e74\u589e\u7387\", \"M\"), 3);\r\ncondition3 = value5 &gt;= Rev_Growth;\r\n\r\n\r\n\/\/ --- \u689d\u4ef6\u56db\uff1a\u52d5\u80fd\u78ba\u8a8d (\u8655\u65bc\u64f4\u5f35\u671f) ---\r\n\/\/ \u78ba\u4fdd\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u6708\u71df\u6536\u5177\u5099\u5275\u65b0\u9ad8\u7684\u898f\u6a21\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u6b63\u5728\u8870\u9000\u7684\u904e\u6c23\u7522\u696d\r\ncondition4 = GetField(\"\u6708\u71df\u6536\", \"M\") = Highest(GetField(\"\u6708\u71df\u6536\", \"M\"), 12);\r\n\r\n\/\/ \u689d\u4ef6\u4e94\uff1a Rule of 40 \u8207 PEG \u4f30\u503c\u4fdd\u8b77\r\nvalue8 = GetField(\"\u71df\u696d\u5229\u76ca\u7387\", \"Q\");\r\nvalue9 = GetField(\"\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\", \"D\");\r\nvalue10 = GetField(\"\u7a05\u5f8c\u6de8\u5229\u6210\u9577\u7387\", \"Q\"); \/\/ \u55ae\u5b63\u6de8\u5229\u6210\u9577\u7387\uff0c\u7528\u65bc\u8a08\u7b97PEG\r\n\r\n\/\/ \u8a08\u7b97 Rule of 40 (\u71df\u6536\u6210\u9577\u7387 + \u71df\u696d\u5229\u76ca\u7387)\r\nvalue6= value5 + value8;\r\n\r\n\/\/ \u8a08\u7b97 PEG (\u672c\u76ca\u6210\u9577\u6bd4)\r\n\/\/ \u82e5\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u6216\u6de8\u5229\u6210\u9577\u7387\u70ba\u8ca0\uff0c\u8ce6\u4e88\u6975\u5927\u503c\u4ee5\u6392\u9664\r\nvar:peg(0);\r\nif value9 &gt; 0 and value10 &gt; 0 then \r\npeg = value9 \/ value10 \r\nelse \r\npeg = 999; \r\n\r\ncondition5 = value6 &gt;= RuleOf40_Limit; \/\/ SaaS\/\u8edf\u9ad4\u80a1\u6838\u5fc3\u5065\u5eb7\u6307\u6a19\r\ncondition6 = peg &lt;= PEG_Limit; \/\/ \u6210\u9577\u672a\u88ab\u6975\u5ea6\u900f\u652f\r\n\r\n\/\/ --- \u7d9c\u5408\u7be9\u9078\u8207\u8f38\u51fa ---\r\nif condition1 and condition2 and condition3 and condition4 \r\nand condition5 and condition6 then begin\r\nret = 1;\r\noutputField1(value1, \"\u71df\u696d\u6bdb\u5229\u7387(%)\");\r\noutputField2(value4, \"\u7814\u767c\u8cbb\u7528\u7387(%)\");\r\noutputField3(value5, \"\u8fd13\u6708\u71df\u6536\u6210\u9577(%)\");\r\nend;<\/pre>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u6839\u64da\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u8173\u672c\u53bb\u56de\u6e2c\u904e\u53bb12\u5e74\u7684\u53f0\u80a1\uff0c \u6301\u6709\u5929\u657890\u5929\uff0c\u56de\u6e2c\u5831\u544a\u5982\u4e0b<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone  wp-image-25161\" src=\"https:\/\/www.xq.com.tw\/xstrader\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/\u87a2\u5e55\u64f7\u53d6\u756b\u9762-2026-03-11-053241-300x166.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"285\" height=\"158\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.xq.com.tw\/xstrader\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/\u87a2\u5e55\u64f7\u53d6\u756b\u9762-2026-03-11-053241-300x166.png 300w, https:\/\/www.xq.com.tw\/xstrader\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/\u87a2\u5e55\u64f7\u53d6\u756b\u9762-2026-03-11-053241-1024x565.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.xq.com.tw\/xstrader\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/\u87a2\u5e55\u64f7\u53d6\u756b\u9762-2026-03-11-053241-768x424.png 768w, https:\/\/www.xq.com.tw\/xstrader\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/\u87a2\u5e55\u64f7\u53d6\u756b\u9762-2026-03-11-053241-1536x848.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.xq.com.tw\/xstrader\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/\u87a2\u5e55\u64f7\u53d6\u756b\u9762-2026-03-11-053241-660x364.png 660w, https:\/\/www.xq.com.tw\/xstrader\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/\u87a2\u5e55\u64f7\u53d6\u756b\u9762-2026-03-11-053241.png 1652w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 285px) 100vw, 285px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u7e3d\u4ea4\u6613\u6b21\u6578351\u6b21\uff0c\u52dd\u7387\u662f56%\uff0c\u4e0d\u7b97\u9ad8\uff0c\u6642\u9593\u52a0\u6b0a\u5831\u916c\u7387\u662f3151%\uff0c\u9060\u9060\u52dd\u65bc\u5927\u76e4\u7684276% \uff0c\u986f\u793a\u5c0b\u627e\u58df\u65b7\u80a1\u7968\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u5728\u53f0\u7063\u4e5f\u662f\u53ef\u884c\u7684<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; \u5f7c\u5f97\u00b7\u63d0\u723e\uff08Peter Andreas 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