{"id":25365,"date":"2026-04-08T07:12:36","date_gmt":"2026-04-07T23:12:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.xq.com.tw\/xstrader\/?p=25365"},"modified":"2026-04-08T07:12:36","modified_gmt":"2026-04-07T23:12:36","slug":"%e6%9f%af%e5%a7%86%e5%a5%a7%e8%ac%9d%e7%9a%84%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e5%93%b2%e5%ad%b8","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.xq.com.tw\/xstrader\/%e6%9f%af%e5%a7%86%e5%a5%a7%e8%ac%9d%e7%9a%84%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e5%93%b2%e5%ad%b8\/","title":{"rendered":"\u67ef\u59c6\u5967\u8b1d\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u54f2\u5b78"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0\u67ef\u59c6\u00b7\u5967\u8b1d\uff08Colm O&#8217;Shea\uff09\u662f\u5168\u7403\u5b8f\u89c0\u907f\u96aa\u57fa\u91d1\uff08Global Macro Hedge Fund\uff09\u9818\u57df\u7684\u9802\u5c16\u5927\u5e2b\uff0c\u66fe\u88ab\u6536\u9304\u5728\u5091\u514b\u00b7\u53f2\u74e6\u683c\uff08Jack Schwager\uff09\u7684\u7d93\u5178\u540d\u8457\u300a\u5c0d\u6c96\u57fa\u91d1\u5e02\u5834\u5deb\u5e2b\u300b\uff08Hedge Fund Market Wizards\uff09\u4e2d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u8207\u50b3\u7d71\u53ea\u770b\u8ca1\u5831\u7684\u50f9\u503c\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u4e0d\u540c\uff0cO&#8217;Shea \u7684\u601d\u7dad\u6a6b\u8de8\u4e86\u7e3d\u9ad4\u7d93\u6fdf\u3001\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\u8207\u6280\u8853\u9762\u3002\u4ee5\u4e0b\u70ba\u60a8\u6574\u7406\u4ed6\u7684\u904e\u5f80\u7d93\u6b77\u3001\u6838\u5fc3\u6295\u8cc7\u54f2\u5b78\uff0c\u4e26\u5c07\u5176\u8f49\u5316\u70ba\u7b26\u5408 XQ \u7cfb\u7d71\u9650\u5236\u8207\u77e5\u8b58\u5eab\u6b04\u4f4d\u898f\u7bc4\u7684 XScript \u91cf\u5316\u9078\u80a1\u8173\u672c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>\ud83d\udca1 \u67ef\u59c6\u00b7\u5967\u8b1d (Colm O&#8217;Shea) \u7d93\u6b77\u8207\u6295\u8cc7\u54f2\u5b78<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><b>\u904e\u5f80\u7d93\u6b77\uff1a<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Colm O&#8217;Shea \u66fe\u5728\u7d22\u7f85\u65af\u57fa\u91d1\u7ba1\u7406\u516c\u53f8\uff08Soros Fund Management\uff09\u64d4\u4efb\u5b8f\u89c0\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\uff0c\u5f8c\u4f86\u5275\u7acb\u4e86 COMAC Capital \u907f\u96aa\u57fa\u91d1\u3002\u4ed6\u5728 2008 \u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u671f\u9593\uff0c\u6191\u85c9\u8457\u5c0d\u7e3d\u9ad4\u7d93\u6fdf\u8207\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\u7684\u654f\u92b3\u55c5\u89ba\uff0c\u4e0d\u50c5\u6beb\u9aee\u7121\u50b7\uff0c\u9084\u5275\u9020\u4e86\u9a5a\u4eba\u7684\u6b63\u5831\u916c\uff0c\u78ba\u7acb\u4e86\u4ed6\u5728\u5168\u7403\u5b8f\u89c0\u4ea4\u6613\u754c\u7684\u50b3\u5947\u5730\u4f4d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>\u6838\u5fc3\u6295\u8cc7\u54f2\u5b78\uff1a<\/b><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u6c7a\u5b9a\u300c\u8cb7\u4ec0\u9ebc\u300d\uff0c\u6280\u8853\u9762\u6c7a\u5b9a\u300c\u4f55\u6642\u8cb7\u300d (Fundamentals for WHAT, Price Action for WHEN)<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\uff1a<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><br \/>\n<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">O&#8217;Shea \u5f37\u8abf\uff0c\u4ed6\u7d55\u5c0d\u4e0d\u6703\u53ea\u56e0\u70ba\u300c\u67d0\u500b\u6771\u897f\u5f88\u4fbf\u5b9c\u300d\u5c31\u8cb7\u9032\u3002\u4ed6\u6703\u5148\u900f\u904e\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u78ba\u8a8d\u9019\u662f\u4e00\u5bb6\u597d\u516c\u53f8\u6216\u597d\u8cc7\u7522\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c<\/span><b>\u8010\u5fc3\u7b49\u5f85\u5e02\u5834\u8da8\u52e2\uff08\u50f9\u683c\u884c\u70ba\uff09\u8207\u4ed6\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u89c0\u9ede\u4e00\u81f4\u6642<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\uff0c\u624d\u6703\u771f\u6b63\u51fa\u624b\u3002\u4ed6\u4e0d\u7576\u63a5\u5200\u5b50\u7684\u82f1\u96c4\u3002<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>\u5c0b\u627e\u4e0d\u5c0d\u7a31\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u5831\u916c\u6bd4 (Asymmetric Risk\/Reward)<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\uff1a<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><br \/>\n<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u4ed6\u6975\u5ea6\u770b\u91cd\u4e0b\u6a94\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u4fdd\u8b77\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u7b46\u4ea4\u6613\u770b\u932f\u7684\u4ee3\u50f9\u662f\u8ce0 1 \u584a\uff0c\u4f46\u770b\u5c0d\u53ef\u4ee5\u8cfa 5 \u584a\u6216 10 \u584a\uff0c\u4e14\u8da8\u52e2\u5df2\u7d93\u555f\u52d5\uff0c\u4ed6\u5c31\u6703\u91cd\u5009\u53c3\u8207\u3002<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>\u8ddf\u96a8\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\u8207\u5927\u8cc7\u91d1 (Liquidity and Flows)<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\uff1a<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><br \/>\n<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u5728\u5b8f\u89c0\u4ea4\u6613\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ed6\u7dca\u76ef\u592e\u884c\u7684\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\uff1b\u5728\u80a1\u5e02\u4e2d\uff0c\u9019\u53ef\u4ee5\u8f49\u5316\u70ba\u7dca\u76ef\u300c\u8070\u660e\u9322\u300d\u8207\u300c\u6cd5\u4eba\u5927\u6236\u300d\u7684\u8cc7\u91d1\u6d41\u5411\u3002<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h3><b>\u2699\ufe0f XScript \u908f\u8f2f\u89e3\u69cb (Type A: \u9078\u80a1\u8173\u672c)<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u70ba\u4e86\u5c07 Colm O&#8217;Shea \u7684\u300c\u57fa\u672c\u9762\uff0b\u6280\u8853\u9762\u9806\u52e2\uff0b\u5927\u8cc7\u91d1\u6d41\u5411\u300d\u5b8f\u89c0\u54f2\u5b78\u7a0b\u5f0f\u5316\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u5efa\u7acb\u4e00\u500b \u9ad8\u8cea\u91cf\u57fa\u672c\u9762 \uff0b \u591a\u982d\u8da8\u52e2\u78ba\u8a8d \uff0b \u6cd5\u4eba\u8cc7\u91d1\u9ede\u706b\u300d \u7684\u9078\u80a1\u6a21\u578b\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>\u57fa\u672c\u9762 (The &#8220;What&#8221;) &#8211; \u78ba\u4fdd\u516c\u53f8\u5177\u5099\u6210\u9577\u8207\u9ad8\u54c1\u8cea\u5e95\u6c23<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\uff1a<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u5be6\u8cea\u7372\u5229\u5e95\u7dda\uff1a<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u6bcf\u80a1\u7a05\u5f8c\u6de8\u5229(\u5143)<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> &gt; 0\u3002<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u8cc7\u672c\u6548\u7387\u9ad8\uff1a<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u80a1\u6771\u6b0a\u76ca\u5831\u916c\u7387<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> (ROE) &gt; 10%\u3002<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u71df\u6536\u5177\u5099\u6210\u9577\u52d5\u80fd\uff1a\u4f7f\u7528 <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u6708\u71df\u6536\u5e74\u589e\u7387<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> &gt; 10%\u3002<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>\u6280\u8853\u9762\/\u50f9\u683c\u884c\u70ba (The &#8220;When&#8221;) &#8211; \u4e0d\u6478\u5e95\uff0c\u9806\u52e2\u800c\u70ba<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\uff1a<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u78ba\u8a8d\u5e02\u5834\u5df2\u7d93\u8a8d\u540c\u57fa\u672c\u9762\uff1a\u77ed\u5929\u671f\u5747\u7dda\uff0820\u65e5\uff09\u5fc5\u9808\u5927\u65bc\u9577\u5929\u671f\u5747\u7dda\uff0860\u65e5\uff09\uff0c\u4e14\u80a1\u50f9\u5728\u5747\u7dda\u4e4b\u4e0a\uff0c\u5448\u73fe\u6a19\u6e96\u7684\u300c\u591a\u982d\u6392\u5217\u300d\u3002<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\u8207\u8070\u660e\u9322 (Liquidity &amp; Flow)<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\uff1a<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u7c4c\u78bc\u9762\uff1a\u8981\u6c42 <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u6cd5\u4eba\u8cb7\u8ce3\u8d85\u5f35\u6578<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> &gt; 0\uff08\u4ee3\u8868\u6a5f\u69cb\u5927\u8cc7\u91d1\u958b\u59cb\u9806\u52e2\u63a8\u5347\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\u9632\u79a6\uff1a\u9650\u5236 <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u6210\u4ea4\u91cf<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> &gt; 2000 \u5f35\uff08O&#8217;Shea \u7d55\u4e0d\u78b0\u7f3a\u4e4f\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\u7684\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u65b9\u4fbf\u96a8\u6642\u505c\u640d\u64a4\u9000\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<pre class=\"brush:xs\">\/\/ \u8173\u672c\u985e\u578b\uff1aType A \u9078\u80a1\u8173\u672c (Screener)\r\n\/\/ \u7b56\u7565\u540d\u7a31\uff1aColm O'Shea \u5b8f\u89c0\u9806\u52e2\u8207\u9ad8\u8cea\u91cf\u9078\u80a1\u7b56\u7565\r\n\/\/ \u7b56\u7565\u908f\u8f2f\uff1a\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u904e\u6ffe\u6a19\u7684\u8cea\u91cf\uff0c\u7d50\u5408\u5747\u7dda\u591a\u982d\u6392\u5217\u6293\u6e96\u9032\u5834\u6642\u6a5f\uff0c\u4e26\u8ddf\u96a8\u6cd5\u4eba\u8cc7\u91d1\u6d41\u5411\r\n\r\n\/\/ \u78ba\u4fdd\u9577\u5929\u671f\u6b77\u53f2\u8cc7\u6599\u8b80\u53d6\u8db3\u5920 (\u8a08\u7b97 60 \u65e5\u5747\u7dda\u9700\u8981)\r\nSetTotalBar(60);\r\n\r\n\/\/ \u8b8a\u6578\u5ba3\u544a\u9435\u5f8b\uff1a\u7121\u5e95\u7dda\u3001\u7121\u7cfb\u7d71\u4fdd\u7559\u5b57 daily\u3001\u9810\u8a2d\u7d66\u5b9a\u521d\u59cb\u503c\r\nvar: epsNum(0), roeNum(0), revYoy(0), instNetBuy(0), volToday(0);\r\nvar: isTrendUp(false);\r\n\r\n\/\/ \u56b4\u683c\u4f9d\u7167 Data Dictionary \u8207\u77e5\u8b58\u5eab\u898f\u7bc4\u8b80\u53d6\u8cc7\u6599\r\nepsNum = GetField(\"\u6bcf\u80a1\u7a05\u5f8c\u6de8\u5229(\u5143)\", \"Q\"); \/\/ \u57fa\u672c\u9762\uff1a\u5fc5\u9808\u5305\u542b(\u5143)\r\nroeNum = GetField(\"\u80a1\u6771\u6b0a\u76ca\u5831\u916c\u7387\", \"Q\"); \/\/ \u57fa\u672c\u9762\uff1aROE\r\nrevYoy = GetField(\"\u6708\u71df\u6536\u5e74\u589e\u7387\", \"M\"); \/\/ \u57fa\u672c\u9762\uff1a\u71df\u6536\u52d5\u80fd\r\ninstNetBuy = GetField(\"\u6cd5\u4eba\u8cb7\u8ce3\u8d85\u5f35\u6578\", \"D\"); \/\/ \u7c4c\u78bc\u9762\uff1a\u5927\u8cc7\u91d1\u6d41\u5411\r\nvolToday = GetField(\"\u6210\u4ea4\u91cf\", \"D\"); \/\/ \u6d41\u52d5\u6027\u9632\u5446\r\n\r\n\/\/ \u6838\u5fc3\u6280\u8853\u9762\u5224\u65b7 (The \"When\")\uff1a\u78ba\u8a8d\u5747\u7dda\u591a\u982d\u6392\u5217 (\u80a1\u50f9 &gt; \u6708\u7dda &gt; \u5b63\u7dda)\r\nif Close &gt; Average(Close, 20) and Average(Close, 20) &gt; Average(Close, 60) then \r\nisTrendUp = true \r\nelse \r\nisTrendUp = false;\r\n\r\n\/\/ \u6838\u5fc3\u91cf\u5316\u7d9c\u5408\u5224\u65b7\uff1a\u55ae\u4e00\u7b49\u865f\u3001\u5b8c\u6574\u908f\u8f2f\u5305\u8986\r\n\/\/ \u689d\u4ef6\u8aaa\u660e\uff1a\r\n\/\/ 1. EPS &gt; 0 \u4e14 ROE &gt; 10% (\u9ad8\u8cea\u91cf\u7372\u5229)\r\n\/\/ 2. \u6708\u71df\u6536\u5e74\u589e\u7387 &gt; 10% (\u5177\u5099\u6210\u9577\u52d5\u80fd)\r\n\/\/ 3. isTrendUp = true (\u6280\u8853\u9762\u8da8\u52e2\u78ba\u8a8d\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u50f9\u683c\u884c\u70ba\u8207\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u65b9\u5411\u4e00\u81f4)\r\n\/\/ 4. \u6cd5\u4eba\u8cb7\u8ce3\u8d85\u5f35\u6578 &gt; 0 (\u6a5f\u69cb\u8cc7\u91d1\u9ede\u706b)\r\n\/\/ 5. \u6210\u4ea4\u91cf &gt; 2000 (\u78ba\u4fdd\u9032\u51fa\u5834\u6d41\u52d5\u6027)\r\nif epsNum &gt; 0.0 \r\nand roeNum &gt; 10.0 \r\nand revYoy &gt; 10.0 \r\nand isTrendUp = true \r\nand instNetBuy &gt; 0.0 \r\nand volToday &gt; 2000 then begin\r\n\r\n\/\/ \u89f8\u767c\u689d\u4ef6\u6210\u7acb\r\nret = 1;\r\n\r\n\/\/ Type A \u9078\u80a1\u8173\u672c\u5c08\u5c6c\uff1a\u8f38\u51fa\u4e5d\u5bae\u683c\u6aa2\u9a57\u6b04\u4f4d (\u8b66\u793a\u8173\u672c\u7d55\u5c0d\u7981\u7528)\r\nOutputField1(revYoy, \"\u6708\u71df\u6536\u5e74\u589e\u7387(%)\");\r\nOutputField2(roeNum, \"\u80a1\u6771\u6b0a\u76ca\u5831\u916c\u7387(%)\");\r\nOutputField3(instNetBuy, \"\u6cd5\u4eba\u8cb7\u8ce3\u8d85\u5f35\u6578\");\r\nend;<\/pre>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u56de\u6e2c\u5831\u544a\u5982\u4e0b\u5716<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-25367\" src=\"https:\/\/www.xq.com.tw\/xstrader\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/2026040801.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1588\" height=\"969\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.xq.com.tw\/xstrader\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/2026040801.png 1588w, https:\/\/www.xq.com.tw\/xstrader\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/2026040801-300x183.png 300w, https:\/\/www.xq.com.tw\/xstrader\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/2026040801-1024x625.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.xq.com.tw\/xstrader\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/2026040801-768x469.png 768w, https:\/\/www.xq.com.tw\/xstrader\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/2026040801-1536x937.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.xq.com.tw\/xstrader\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/2026040801-660x403.png 660w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1588px) 100vw, 1588px\" \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00a0\u67ef\u59c6\u00b7\u5967\u8b1d\uff08Colm O&#8217;Shea\uff09\u662f\u5168\u7403\u5b8f\u89c0\u907f\u96aa\u57fa\u91d1\uff08Global Macro Hedge Fund\uff09\u9818\u57df\u7684\u9802\u5c16\u5927\u5e2b\uff0c\u66fe\u88ab\u6536\u9304\u5728\u5091\u514b\u00b7\u53f2\u74e6\u683c\uff08Jack Schwager\uff09\u7684\u7d93\u5178\u540d\u8457\u300a\u5c0d\u6c96\u57fa\u91d1\u5e02\u5834\u5deb\u5e2b\u300b\uff08Hedge Fund Market Wizards\uff09\u4e2d\u3002 \u8207\u50b3\u7d71\u53ea\u770b\u8ca1\u5831\u7684\u50f9\u503c\u6295\u8cc7\u2026 <span class=\"read-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.xq.com.tw\/xstrader\/%e6%9f%af%e5%a7%86%e5%a5%a7%e8%ac%9d%e7%9a%84%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e5%93%b2%e5%ad%b8\/\">\u95b1\u8b80\u66f4\u591a &raquo;<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-25365","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-1"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.1.1 - 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