Author Archives: 發財橘子

外資廣度指標

今年這一波空頭市場,外資一直意志堅定的站在賣方:

拉長來看,外資長期站在那一邊,幾乎與大盤的波段趨勢同步。

解鈴還需繋鈴人,行情何時到底?還是要看外資何時回心轉意開始由空偏多。

一般大家在看外資動向時,看的都是外資買賣超,今天跟大家介紹一個不一樣的角度:看看外資買超的指標股家數,也就是不看買超金額,而是看買超家數。

這個自訂指標我稱之為「外資廣度指標」。

下面是我寫的腳本:

array:lead[100](0);
lead[1]=GetSymbolField("1102.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//台泥
lead[2]=GetSymbolField("2317.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//鴻海
lead[3]=GetSymbolField("1216.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//統一
lead[4]=GetSymbolField("1301.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//台塑
lead[5]=GetSymbolField("1304.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//台聚
lead[6]=GetSymbolField("1312.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//國喬
lead[7]=GetSymbolField("1326.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//台化
lead[8]=GetSymbolField("1455.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//集盛
lead[9]=GetSymbolField("1476.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//儒鴻
lead[10]=GetSymbolField("1477.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//聚陽
lead[11]=GetSymbolField("1513.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//中興電
lead[12]=GetSymbolField("1515.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//力山
lead[13]=GetSymbolField("1521.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//大億
lead[14]=GetSymbolField("1527.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//鑽全
lead[15]=GetSymbolField("1560.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//中砂
lead[16]=GetSymbolField("1565.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//精華
lead[17]=GetSymbolField("1582.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//信錦
lead[18]=GetSymbolField("1605.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//華新
lead[19]=GetSymbolField("1717.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//長興
lead[20]=GetSymbolField("1723.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//中碳
lead[21]=GetSymbolField("1726.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//永記
lead[22]=GetSymbolField("1736.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//喬山
lead[23]=GetSymbolField("1773.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//勝一
lead[24]=GetSymbolField("1795.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//美時
lead[25]=GetSymbolField("1907.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//永豊餘
lead[26]=GetSymbolField("2002.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//中鋼
lead[27]=GetSymbolField("2006.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//東鋼
lead[28]=GetSymbolField("2015.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//豊興
lead[29]=GetSymbolField("2029.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//盛餘
lead[30]=GetSymbolField("2027.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//大成鋼
lead[31]=GetSymbolField("2031.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//新光鋼
lead[32]=GetSymbolField("2049.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//上銀
lead[33]=GetSymbolField("2059.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//川湖
lead[34]=GetSymbolField("2103.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//台橡
lead[35]=GetSymbolField("2105.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//正新
lead[36]=GetSymbolField("2204.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//中華車
lead[37]=GetSymbolField("2207.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//和泰車
lead[38]=GetSymbolField("2231.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//為升
lead[39]=GetSymbolField("2233.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//宇隆
lead[40]=GetSymbolField("2301.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//光寶
lead[41]=GetSymbolField("2303.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//聯電
lead[42]=GetSymbolField("2308.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//台達電
lead[43]=GetSymbolField("2313.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//華通
lead[44]=GetSymbolField("2324.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//仁寶
lead[45]=GetSymbolField("2327.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//國巨
lead[46]=GetSymbolField("2330.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//台積電
lead[47]=GetSymbolField("2337.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//旺宏
lead[48]=GetSymbolField("2344.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//華邦電
lead[49]=GetSymbolField("2345.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//智邦
lead[50]=GetSymbolField("2347.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//聯強
lead[51]=GetSymbolField("2352.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//佳世達
lead[52]=GetSymbolField("2353.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//宏碁
lead[53]=GetSymbolField("2354.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//鴻準
lead[54]=GetSymbolField("2357.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//華碩
lead[55]=GetSymbolField("2368.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//金像電
lead[56]=GetSymbolField("2376.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//技嘉
lead[57]=GetSymbolField("2377.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//微星
lead[58]=GetSymbolField("2379.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//瑞昱
lead[59]=GetSymbolField("2382.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//廣達
lead[60]=GetSymbolField("2383.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//台光電
lead[61]=GetSymbolField("2385.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//群光
lead[62]=GetSymbolField("2393.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//億光
lead[63]=GetSymbolField("2395.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//研華
lead[64]=GetSymbolField("2408.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//南亞科
lead[65]=GetSymbolField("2409.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//友達
lead[66]=GetSymbolField("2439.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//美律
lead[67]=GetSymbolField("2449.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//京元電
lead[68]=GetSymbolField("2454.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//聯發科
lead[69]=GetSymbolField("2603.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//長榮
lead[70]=GetSymbolField("2606.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//裕民
lead[71]=GetSymbolField("2610.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//華航
lead[72]=GetSymbolField("2615.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//萬海
lead[73]=GetSymbolField("2707.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//晶華
lead[74]=GetSymbolField("2729.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//瓦城
lead[75]=GetSymbolField("2731.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//雄獅
lead[76]=GetSymbolField("2912.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//統一超
lead[77]=GetSymbolField("3008.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//大立光
lead[78]=GetSymbolField("3034.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//聯詠
lead[79]=GetSymbolField("3037.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//欣興
lead[80]=GetSymbolField("3042.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//晶技
lead[81]=GetSymbolField("3130.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//104
lead[82]=GetSymbolField("3231.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//緯創
lead[83]=GetSymbolField("3406.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//玉晶光
lead[84]=GetSymbolField("3481.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//群創
lead[85]=GetSymbolField("3576.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//聯合再生
lead[86]=GetSymbolField("3665.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//貿聯
lead[87]=GetSymbolField("3702.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//大聯大
lead[88]=GetSymbolField("3707.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//漢磊
lead[89]=GetSymbolField("3708.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//上緯
lead[90]=GetSymbolField("3711.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//日月光
lead[91]=GetSymbolField("3714.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//富采
lead[92]=GetSymbolField("4438.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//廣越
lead[93]=GetSymbolField("5434.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//崇越
lead[94]=GetSymbolField("6269.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//台郡
lead[95]=GetSymbolField("6285.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//啟碁
lead[96]=GetSymbolField("6505.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//台塑化
lead[97]=GetSymbolField("9910.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//豊泰
lead[98]=GetSymbolField("9921.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//巨大
lead[99]=GetSymbolField("8299.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//群聯
lead[100]=GetSymbolField("8086.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//宏捷科
variable:i(0),count(0);
count=0;
for i=1 to 100 begin
if lead[i]>=lead[i][1] 
and lead[i]>=100
//外資買超大於100張,且不比前一天少
then 
count=count+1;
end;
plot1(average(count,15),"外資廣度指標");



根據這個腳本,畫出來的圖如下:

 

 

這是算出每天符合外資買超超過100張且買超張數不比前一天少的指標股家數,然後取15日移動平均。

這個數字如果突破25,通常後市仍有高點,如果超過30,就要小心高處不勝寒。

如果這個指標呈現上升趨勢,表示外資愈買愈多的股票數在增加,呈現下跌趨勢,則是外資縮手的情況愈來愈普遍。

 

 

續強力指標

以前我還在跑新聞的時候,市場有些老師父常會突然吐出一句經驗之談,我印象很深刻的是,民國79年指數跌到五千點以下時,我覺得股價跟先前相比,實在太便宜,所以每天早上都試著搶反彈,但最常見的就是今天追進去,明天開盤就套了

後來我就問那些深經百戰的老師父,到底何時才能進場?

老師父悠悠的跟我說,如果那些績優股能連兩天走強,你再試看看

,如果今天最強的,就是明天最弱的,那就代表進場的都只是想搶反彈的,今天追明天就想要賣,而且一漲就沒有人想追,代表市場多方意志很脆弱

老師父的這番話我一直記到今天

所以當XS可以自訂指標時,我就寫了一個續強力指標,來作為研判大盤多空方向的工具

這個指標的寫法是去計算指標股中,有那些股票昨天轉強後今天仍能收紅,然後取15天的移動平均

我寫的腳本如下:

array:lead[100](0);
lead[1]=GetSymbolField("1102.tw","收盤價","D");//台泥
lead[2]=GetSymbolField("2317.tw","收盤價","D");//鴻海
lead[3]=GetSymbolField("1216.tw","收盤價","D");//統一
lead[4]=GetSymbolField("1301.tw","收盤價","D");//台塑
lead[5]=GetSymbolField("1304.tw","收盤價","D");//台聚
lead[6]=GetSymbolField("1312.tw","收盤價","D");//國喬
lead[7]=GetSymbolField("1326.tw","收盤價","D");//台化
lead[8]=GetSymbolField("1455.tw","收盤價","D");//集盛
lead[9]=GetSymbolField("1476.tw","收盤價","D");//儒鴻
lead[10]=GetSymbolField("1477.tw","收盤價","D");//聚陽
lead[11]=GetSymbolField("1513.tw","收盤價","D");//中興電
lead[12]=GetSymbolField("1515.tw","收盤價","D");//力山
lead[13]=GetSymbolField("1521.tw","收盤價","D");//大億
lead[14]=GetSymbolField("1527.tw","收盤價","D");//鑽全
lead[15]=GetSymbolField("1560.tw","收盤價","D");//中砂
lead[16]=GetSymbolField("1565.tw","收盤價","D");//精華
lead[17]=GetSymbolField("1582.tw","收盤價","D");//信錦
lead[18]=GetSymbolField("1605.tw","收盤價","D");//華新
lead[19]=GetSymbolField("1717.tw","收盤價","D");//長興
lead[20]=GetSymbolField("1723.tw","收盤價","D");//中碳
lead[21]=GetSymbolField("1726.tw","收盤價","D");//永記
lead[22]=GetSymbolField("1736.tw","收盤價","D");//喬山
lead[23]=GetSymbolField("1773.tw","收盤價","D");//勝一
lead[24]=GetSymbolField("1795.tw","收盤價","D");//美時
lead[25]=GetSymbolField("1907.tw","收盤價","D");//永豊餘
lead[26]=GetSymbolField("2002.tw","收盤價","D");//中鋼
lead[27]=GetSymbolField("2006.tw","收盤價","D");//東鋼
lead[28]=GetSymbolField("2015.tw","收盤價","D");//豊興
lead[29]=GetSymbolField("2029.tw","收盤價","D");//盛餘
lead[30]=GetSymbolField("2027.tw","收盤價","D");//大成鋼
lead[31]=GetSymbolField("2031.tw","收盤價","D");//新光鋼
lead[32]=GetSymbolField("2049.tw","收盤價","D");//上銀
lead[33]=GetSymbolField("2059.tw","收盤價","D");//川湖
lead[34]=GetSymbolField("2103.tw","收盤價","D");//台橡
lead[35]=GetSymbolField("2105.tw","收盤價","D");//正新
lead[36]=GetSymbolField("2204.tw","收盤價","D");//中華車
lead[37]=GetSymbolField("2207.tw","收盤價","D");//和泰車
lead[38]=GetSymbolField("2231.tw","收盤價","D");//為升
lead[39]=GetSymbolField("2233.tw","收盤價","D");//宇隆
lead[40]=GetSymbolField("2301.tw","收盤價","D");//光寶
lead[41]=GetSymbolField("2303.tw","收盤價","D");//聯電
lead[42]=GetSymbolField("2308.tw","收盤價","D");//台達電
lead[43]=GetSymbolField("2313.tw","收盤價","D");//華通
lead[44]=GetSymbolField("2324.tw","收盤價","D");//仁寶
lead[45]=GetSymbolField("2327.tw","收盤價","D");//國巨
lead[46]=GetSymbolField("2330.tw","收盤價","D");//台積電
lead[47]=GetSymbolField("2337.tw","收盤價","D");//旺宏
lead[48]=GetSymbolField("2344.tw","收盤價","D");//華邦電
lead[49]=GetSymbolField("2345.tw","收盤價","D");//智邦
lead[50]=GetSymbolField("2347.tw","收盤價","D");//聯強
lead[51]=GetSymbolField("2352.tw","收盤價","D");//佳世達
lead[52]=GetSymbolField("2353.tw","收盤價","D");//宏碁
lead[53]=GetSymbolField("2354.tw","收盤價","D");//鴻準
lead[54]=GetSymbolField("2357.tw","收盤價","D");//華碩
lead[55]=GetSymbolField("2368.tw","收盤價","D");//金像電
lead[56]=GetSymbolField("2376.tw","收盤價","D");//技嘉
lead[57]=GetSymbolField("2377.tw","收盤價","D");//微星
lead[58]=GetSymbolField("2379.tw","收盤價","D");//瑞昱
lead[59]=GetSymbolField("2382.tw","收盤價","D");//廣達
lead[60]=GetSymbolField("2383.tw","收盤價","D");//台光電
lead[61]=GetSymbolField("2385.tw","收盤價","D");//群光
lead[62]=GetSymbolField("2393.tw","收盤價","D");//億光
lead[63]=GetSymbolField("2395.tw","收盤價","D");//研華
lead[64]=GetSymbolField("2408.tw","收盤價","D");//南亞科
lead[65]=GetSymbolField("2409.tw","收盤價","D");//友達
lead[66]=GetSymbolField("2439.tw","收盤價","D");//美律
lead[67]=GetSymbolField("2449.tw","收盤價","D");//京元電
lead[68]=GetSymbolField("2454.tw","收盤價","D");//聯發科
lead[69]=GetSymbolField("2603.tw","收盤價","D");//長榮
lead[70]=GetSymbolField("2606.tw","收盤價","D");//裕民
lead[71]=GetSymbolField("2610.tw","收盤價","D");//華航
lead[72]=GetSymbolField("2615.tw","收盤價","D");//萬海
lead[73]=GetSymbolField("2707.tw","收盤價","D");//晶華
lead[74]=GetSymbolField("2729.tw","收盤價","D");//瓦城
lead[75]=GetSymbolField("2731.tw","收盤價","D");//雄獅
lead[76]=GetSymbolField("2912.tw","收盤價","D");//統一超
lead[77]=GetSymbolField("3008.tw","收盤價","D");//大立光
lead[78]=GetSymbolField("3034.tw","收盤價","D");//聯詠
lead[79]=GetSymbolField("3037.tw","收盤價","D");//欣興
lead[80]=GetSymbolField("3042.tw","收盤價","D");//晶技
lead[81]=GetSymbolField("3130.tw","收盤價","D");//104
lead[82]=GetSymbolField("3231.tw","收盤價","D");//緯創
lead[83]=GetSymbolField("3406.tw","收盤價","D");//玉晶光
lead[84]=GetSymbolField("3481.tw","收盤價","D");//群創
lead[85]=GetSymbolField("3576.tw","收盤價","D");//聯合再生
lead[86]=GetSymbolField("3665.tw","收盤價","D");//貿聯
lead[87]=GetSymbolField("3702.tw","收盤價","D");//大聯大
lead[88]=GetSymbolField("3707.tw","收盤價","D");//漢磊
lead[89]=GetSymbolField("3708.tw","收盤價","D");//上緯
lead[90]=GetSymbolField("3711.tw","收盤價","D");//日月光
lead[91]=GetSymbolField("3714.tw","收盤價","D");//富采
lead[92]=GetSymbolField("4438.tw","收盤價","D");//廣越
lead[93]=GetSymbolField("5434.tw","收盤價","D");//崇越
lead[94]=GetSymbolField("6269.tw","收盤價","D");//台郡
lead[95]=GetSymbolField("6285.tw","收盤價","D");//啟碁
lead[96]=GetSymbolField("6505.tw","收盤價","D");//台塑化
lead[97]=GetSymbolField("9910.tw","收盤價","D");//豊泰
lead[98]=GetSymbolField("9921.tw","收盤價","D");//巨大
lead[99]=GetSymbolField("8299.tw","收盤價","D");//群聯
lead[100]=GetSymbolField("8086.tw","收盤價","D");//宏捷科
variable:i(0),count(0);
count=0;
for i=1 to 100 begin
if lead[i]>=lead[i][1]*1.01
and lead[i][1]>=lead[i][2]*1.03
//前一日漲超過2.5%而今日仍能續漲超過1%
then 
count=count+1;
end;
plot1(average(count,15),"續強指標");



 

用這個指標跟加權指數畫出來的對照圖如下

大家可以看一下,我是覺得還蠻具參考價值的

整理一下,截到目前為止,一共跟大家介紹了

續漲股票家數

融資維持率

空方氣勢指標

庫藏股指標 

指標股站在月線之上的家數

上漲下跌趨動力比

指標股築底指標

以及今天的續強力指標

我一向是覺得多算勝,少算不勝,所以在研判大盤時,比較不會使用唯一的指標作決策,而是從各個面相來研判,這些自訂指標就是我在研判時用的工具

每天很快的把這些指標跟大盤的連動關係瞄一下,如果多數指標都呈現多方訊號,就會比較大膽的加碼,如果指標訊號有的偏多,有的偏空,就會再看一下

 

 

如何研判景氣循環的位置

景氣成長還是衰退,學術上的定義是看GDP年增率,如果連續兩季負成長,那就是衰退。

以美國為例,下圖是從1960年代到這波疫情爆發之前,美國的GDP表現情況:

從這張圖可以看到,美國在過往的數十年之中,經歷過以下的幾次經濟衰退

一、1973年第一次石油危機

當時中東產油國對支持以色列的西方國家實施石油禁運,油價漲了三倍

二、1979年到1981年的第二次石油危機

伊朗爆發伊斯蘭革命,以及之後的兩伊戰爭,讓油價由每桶14美元漲到35美元

三、1990年的伊拉克入侵科威特

四、2000年的網路泡沫

五、2008年的次貸風暴

前三次都是油價急遽上升造成通膨壓力,造成經濟衰退,2000年的衰退除了泡沫之外,FED過度升息也是原因之一,2008年的次貸風暴則是美國房地產泡沫化的後遺症。

但在現實世界裡,如果等到當季的GDP負成長了才知道景氣衰退,那也就太遜了,華爾街會透過定期公佈的經濟數據來推斷未來的景氣走向,因為GDP=消費+投資+政府支出+出口減去進口,所以要看一個經濟體是成長還是衰退,基本就是看這幾個部份。

由於台股跟美股的連動性高,所以我關注的焦點主要是在美國的經濟。

在消費方面,我常用來觀察美國消費情況的指標如下:

密西根大學消費者信心指數

消費佔美國GDP的比重將近七成,消費者信心指數一直都是觀察美國消費者需求的領先指標,這個指標是每個月十日左右公佈最新調查值,這個指標是消費者支出的領先指標。

第二個在消費上我特別注意的消費者物價指數:

景氣循環到了過熱時,往往會產生通貨膨脹,物價太高,消費者的所得如果沒有同步上升,那麼實質購買力反而是下降的。

其次,過高的物價會引來央行調升利率。

央行的緊縮動作,會帶動房貸利率的上升。

而房貸利率的上昇,直接傷害的就是背房貸者的可支配所得,對消費支出絕對是負面作用。

最後我在消費上會特別留意的是失業率:

一旦企業開始裁員,失業率上升,消費能力及消費意願都會明顯的下滑。

 

在投資方面,我觀察的指標有三個

一、ISM製造業採購經理人指數

月初就會公佈上個月的數據,有效率。

由於台灣有大量的公司,其業績跟美國企業的採購能量息息相關,所以ISM製造業採購經理人指數,往往可以拿來研判台灣上市櫃公司未來的業績方向,所以跟台股的連動性很強。

二、產能利用率

企業一定是等到產能利用率超過75%以上才會再思考要再擴廠,增加資本支出,增加人力雇用。

一旦產能利用率下降到75%以下,投資面的成長就會停滯。

三、新屋開工率

房地產是景氣的火車頭,會帶動包括建材,家電等多個產業的需求,所以我會特別留意這個數字的變化。

目前這些數字裡頭,可以明顯感受到消費者信心指數的下滑,採購經理人指數也持續在下降,物價及利率的飆升都到了多年來的高點,FED的期待當然是希望通膨壓力可以儘快下降到可接受範圍,讓經濟可以軟著陸,這樣子消費者信心及企業投資意願就不會進一步重挫,把經濟帶向衰退。

因此,現在的重中之重是物價。

之後,我們再針對消費者物價指數的組合,作更進一步的探討。

===

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大盤的GPS:商業循環與股市多空循環

2022年國際金融市場詭譎多變,市場往那走,最好有個導航工具,這一篇來跟大家介紹股市循環與景氣循環休戚與共的連動關係,以及我們在循環的不同位置,應該採取的不同交易策略。

關於 股市循環與景氣循環的相關位置,有興趣的朋友可以google 關鍵字“ business cycle & stock market cycle”,就可以找到不少相關的文章跟圖表。

首先我們先來看股市的循環,就像下圖一樣,這張圖是我從這個連結找來的

行情總在絕望中誕生,在半信半疑中上漲,在憧憬中到頂,在極度樂觀中幻滅。

影響股市的核心因素,除了股民的心理之外,另外兩大要素是利率與企業獲利,而這兩者跟景氣循環則是息息相關。

下面這張圖是引用這個連結

 

景氣循環就像上面這張圖一樣,從擴張期到高峰,衰退,蕭條,谷底再到復甦,六個階段,週而復始,不同的景氣循環,對那些不同的類股,有著不同的影響,下圖是景氣循環在不同位置時,表現最好的產業。

 

股市有循環,景氣有循環,那麼兩者的關係為何呢?

先前我有畫過一張圖,跟大家分享股市與景氣交互作用的關係:

從這張圖我們可以會發現,所有的變動根源都是來自個人可支配所得,當這個數字趨勢往上,一切都愈來愈美好,當像通膨啦!升息啦!就業情況惡化! 企業獲利能力惡化!等等負面的作用在增強,就會影響個人可支配所得,進而影響股市與景氣循環。

而股市的反映,更是領先景氣循環。

大家都說,股市是經濟之窗,一直以來,股市的循環跟景氣循環通常有著如下圖的關係。

這張圖我是從以下的連結找來的

景氣進入蕭條期時,股市也就差不多落底,等到景氣落底,股價已領先上漲,當景氣全面回升,股價也接近高原區了,這當中,最值得我們注意的是各國央行的動作,下面股市通常末升段是由原物料的飆漲所帶動,但這恰恰會引發通膨的疑慮,各國央行會開始升息,當央行持續升息,股市會先作頭下殺,但這時候景氣還在高點,但隨著央行升息及股市下跌,需求也會減少,開始帶動景氣也跟著下滑。

景氣下滑會影響企業的獲利,連帶的股市表現會更偏空。

企業獲利的下滑會開始讓企業降低資本支出,甚至開始裁員。

前者會影響機械設備等行業,後者會影響消費行業,這兩類的股票會持續傳來壞消息。

等到景氣衰退反映在物價上,央行這下子擔心的不是通膨,而是失業率,必要時候央行開始又要調降利率來剌激景氣。

央行降息對股市是利多,股票市場開始告別空頭市場,開始展開新的多頭行情。

 

面對不同循環位置,我們在操作上,除了要調整股債的比例,在類股的選擇上,也要有所取捨。

下面這張圖就很清楚的表達景氣循環不同階段的定義及較有表現的類股,這張圖我是從這個連結找來的

 

以目前各種數據來看,我們目前極可能正處於股市主跌段結束,景氣快要進入早期衰退的位置,最保險的作法是買那些景氣再不好都得用的公共設施股,像是高鐵、發電廠之類的。

至於接下來,我們要最留意這幾天原油及大宗物質價格的下殺,能不能讓FED感受到通膨的壓力有所降低,不要採取那麼激進的升息動作,這樣股市就有機會休養生息,等待新的科技應用帶動新的復甦需求。

相反的,如果油價及大宗物質價格居高不下,FED七月再升三碼,那麼對股市、對債市、對金融市場,都是新一波的考驗。

 

指標股築底指標

在研判大盤是否築底時,我常看的是,具指標意義的個股,有多少已有開始築底的跡象,例如股價已符合脫離近期最低點達一成以上之類的條件。

根據這樣的思維,我寫了一個指標股築底指標,這個指標的腳本如下

array:lead[100](0);
lead[1]=GetSymbolField("1102.tw","收盤價","D");//台泥
lead[2]=GetSymbolField("2317.tw","收盤價","D");//鴻海
lead[3]=GetSymbolField("1216.tw","收盤價","D");//統一
lead[4]=GetSymbolField("1301.tw","收盤價","D");//台塑
lead[5]=GetSymbolField("1304.tw","收盤價","D");//台聚
lead[6]=GetSymbolField("1312.tw","收盤價","D");//國喬
lead[7]=GetSymbolField("1326.tw","收盤價","D");//台化
lead[8]=GetSymbolField("1455.tw","收盤價","D");//集盛
lead[9]=GetSymbolField("1476.tw","收盤價","D");//儒鴻
lead[10]=GetSymbolField("1477.tw","收盤價","D");//聚陽
lead[11]=GetSymbolField("1513.tw","收盤價","D");//中興電
lead[12]=GetSymbolField("1515.tw","收盤價","D");//力山
lead[13]=GetSymbolField("1521.tw","收盤價","D");//大億
lead[14]=GetSymbolField("1527.tw","收盤價","D");//鑽全
lead[15]=GetSymbolField("1560.tw","收盤價","D");//中砂
lead[16]=GetSymbolField("1565.tw","收盤價","D");//精華
lead[17]=GetSymbolField("1582.tw","收盤價","D");//信錦
lead[18]=GetSymbolField("1605.tw","收盤價","D");//華新
lead[19]=GetSymbolField("1717.tw","收盤價","D");//長興
lead[20]=GetSymbolField("1723.tw","收盤價","D");//中碳
lead[21]=GetSymbolField("1726.tw","收盤價","D");//永記
lead[22]=GetSymbolField("1736.tw","收盤價","D");//喬山
lead[23]=GetSymbolField("1773.tw","收盤價","D");//勝一
lead[24]=GetSymbolField("1795.tw","收盤價","D");//美時
lead[25]=GetSymbolField("1907.tw","收盤價","D");//永豊餘
lead[26]=GetSymbolField("2002.tw","收盤價","D");//中鋼
lead[27]=GetSymbolField("2006.tw","收盤價","D");//東鋼
lead[28]=GetSymbolField("2015.tw","收盤價","D");//豊興
lead[29]=GetSymbolField("2029.tw","收盤價","D");//盛餘
lead[30]=GetSymbolField("2027.tw","收盤價","D");//大成鋼
lead[31]=GetSymbolField("2031.tw","收盤價","D");//新光鋼
lead[32]=GetSymbolField("2049.tw","收盤價","D");//上銀
lead[33]=GetSymbolField("2059.tw","收盤價","D");//川湖
lead[34]=GetSymbolField("2103.tw","收盤價","D");//台橡
lead[35]=GetSymbolField("2105.tw","收盤價","D");//正新
lead[36]=GetSymbolField("2204.tw","收盤價","D");//中華車
lead[37]=GetSymbolField("2207.tw","收盤價","D");//和泰車
lead[38]=GetSymbolField("2231.tw","收盤價","D");//為升
lead[39]=GetSymbolField("2233.tw","收盤價","D");//宇隆
lead[40]=GetSymbolField("2301.tw","收盤價","D");//光寶
lead[41]=GetSymbolField("2303.tw","收盤價","D");//聯電
lead[42]=GetSymbolField("2308.tw","收盤價","D");//台達電
lead[43]=GetSymbolField("2313.tw","收盤價","D");//華通
lead[44]=GetSymbolField("2324.tw","收盤價","D");//仁寶
lead[45]=GetSymbolField("2327.tw","收盤價","D");//國巨
lead[46]=GetSymbolField("2330.tw","收盤價","D");//台積電
lead[47]=GetSymbolField("2337.tw","收盤價","D");//旺宏
lead[48]=GetSymbolField("2344.tw","收盤價","D");//華邦電
lead[49]=GetSymbolField("2345.tw","收盤價","D");//智邦
lead[50]=GetSymbolField("2347.tw","收盤價","D");//聯強
lead[51]=GetSymbolField("2352.tw","收盤價","D");//佳世達
lead[52]=GetSymbolField("2353.tw","收盤價","D");//宏碁
lead[53]=GetSymbolField("2354.tw","收盤價","D");//鴻準
lead[54]=GetSymbolField("2357.tw","收盤價","D");//華碩
lead[55]=GetSymbolField("2368.tw","收盤價","D");//金像電
lead[56]=GetSymbolField("2376.tw","收盤價","D");//技嘉
lead[57]=GetSymbolField("2377.tw","收盤價","D");//微星
lead[58]=GetSymbolField("2379.tw","收盤價","D");//瑞昱
lead[59]=GetSymbolField("2382.tw","收盤價","D");//廣達
lead[60]=GetSymbolField("2383.tw","收盤價","D");//台光電
lead[61]=GetSymbolField("2385.tw","收盤價","D");//群光
lead[62]=GetSymbolField("2393.tw","收盤價","D");//億光
lead[63]=GetSymbolField("2395.tw","收盤價","D");//研華
lead[64]=GetSymbolField("2408.tw","收盤價","D");//南亞科
lead[65]=GetSymbolField("2409.tw","收盤價","D");//友達
lead[66]=GetSymbolField("2439.tw","收盤價","D");//美律
lead[67]=GetSymbolField("2449.tw","收盤價","D");//京元電
lead[68]=GetSymbolField("2454.tw","收盤價","D");//聯發科
lead[69]=GetSymbolField("2603.tw","收盤價","D");//長榮
lead[70]=GetSymbolField("2606.tw","收盤價","D");//裕民
lead[71]=GetSymbolField("2610.tw","收盤價","D");//華航
lead[72]=GetSymbolField("2615.tw","收盤價","D");//萬海
lead[73]=GetSymbolField("2707.tw","收盤價","D");//晶華
lead[74]=GetSymbolField("2729.tw","收盤價","D");//瓦城
lead[75]=GetSymbolField("2731.tw","收盤價","D");//雄獅
lead[76]=GetSymbolField("2912.tw","收盤價","D");//統一超
lead[77]=GetSymbolField("3008.tw","收盤價","D");//大立光
lead[78]=GetSymbolField("3034.tw","收盤價","D");//聯詠
lead[79]=GetSymbolField("3037.tw","收盤價","D");//欣興
lead[80]=GetSymbolField("3042.tw","收盤價","D");//晶技
lead[81]=GetSymbolField("3130.tw","收盤價","D");//104
lead[82]=GetSymbolField("3231.tw","收盤價","D");//緯創
lead[83]=GetSymbolField("3406.tw","收盤價","D");//玉晶光
lead[84]=GetSymbolField("3481.tw","收盤價","D");//群創
lead[85]=GetSymbolField("3576.tw","收盤價","D");//聯合再生
lead[86]=GetSymbolField("3665.tw","收盤價","D");//貿聯
lead[87]=GetSymbolField("3702.tw","收盤價","D");//大聯大
lead[88]=GetSymbolField("3707.tw","收盤價","D");//漢磊
lead[89]=GetSymbolField("3708.tw","收盤價","D");//上緯
lead[90]=GetSymbolField("3711.tw","收盤價","D");//日月光
lead[91]=GetSymbolField("3714.tw","收盤價","D");//富采
lead[92]=GetSymbolField("4438.tw","收盤價","D");//廣越
lead[93]=GetSymbolField("5434.tw","收盤價","D");//崇越
lead[94]=GetSymbolField("6269.tw","收盤價","D");//台郡
lead[95]=GetSymbolField("6285.tw","收盤價","D");//啟碁
lead[96]=GetSymbolField("6505.tw","收盤價","D");//台塑化
lead[97]=GetSymbolField("9910.tw","收盤價","D");//豊泰
lead[98]=GetSymbolField("9921.tw","收盤價","D");//巨大
lead[99]=GetSymbolField("8299.tw","收盤價","D");//群聯
lead[100]=GetSymbolField("8086.tw","收盤價","D");//宏捷科
variable:i(0),count(0);
count=0;
for i=1 to 100 begin
if lead[i]>lowest(lead[i],10)*1.1
//收盤價比近十日低點回升一成
then 
count=count+1;
end;

plot1(100-count,"指標股築底家數");
//用100-count 代表數字愈大,愈多股票沒有比十日低點高超過一成
//數字愈小,代表愈來愈多股票比十日低點高出一成
plot2(20);
plot3(35);


這個指標與加權指數的對照圖如下

 

為了跟加權指數作對照,所以這個指標我是用指標股數量100去減符合築底條件的股票,也就是這個數字愈高,代表愈多股票沒有比十日低點高超過一成,相反的,這指標數字愈小,代表愈多股票築底成功

根據上圖,我們可以看到,這數字在35以上時,代表有三分之一的個股距離近十日低點不到一成,指數在高點,相反的,這數字在20以下時,代表有八成的股票,股價距離十日低點已漲超過一成,如果這個情況出現在指數低點,而且指數下跌,這指標也下跌,代表盤在跌,但築底的家數變多,則是一個反轉的訊號

如下圖

但如果這數字伴著指數反彈後馬上回升,代表符合條件的股票變少,這就不算是築底的訊號,頂多是反彈

這個指標,因為我挑的這100檔指標股裡有上市較短的公司,如果各位希望看更長的數字,就需要讓指標股都上市蠻久的才可以

這點要跟大家作個說明

整理一下,截到目前為止,一共跟大家介紹了續漲股票家數融資維持率空方氣勢指標庫藏股指標 

指標股站在月線之上的家數上漲下跌趨動力比

加上今天的這個指標,一共有七個研判大盤落底與否的工具,大盤是否落底,大家可以搭配著這些指標,相互印證及確認,未來在盤勢如果還是詭譎多變,我會繼續跟大家介紹其他我覺得不錯用的工具,也會跟大家從其他面向,分享我研判大盤多空方向的其他類工具。

 

大盤指標系列之上漲下跌趨動力比

今天來跟大家介紹一個我無意間發現的指標,我把它命名為上漲下跌趨動力比

這個指標的公式,是把XQ裡的上漲量除以上漲家數作分母,下跌量除以下跌家數作分子,算出一個比例

XQ的上漲量跟下跌量不是上漲公司的合計量跟下跌公司的合計量,而是所有公司當根日線在盤上的成交量稱為上漲量,當根日線所有公司在盤下的成交量稱為下跌量,以下是XQ官網的說明:

上漲量的計算是,這一根K棒內上漲量(比前一價高的成交量)的加總。

在大盤、類股商品中,則是成分股的加總。 下跌量也是這樣算出來的

所以這個比值的意思是平均每檔下跌的股票有多少下跌量與平均每檔上漲股票產生多少上漲量的比值

這個指標的值愈大,代表下殺的能量愈大

我把這個想法寫成了自訂指標

settotalbar(1000);

value1=getField("上漲家數", "D");
value2=getField("下跌家數", "D");
value3=getField("上漲量", "D");
value4=getField("下跌量", "D");
value5=(value3/value1);
//上漲量/上漲家數
value6=(value4/value2);
//下跌量/下跌家數
value7=value6/value5;


plot1(value7,"上漲下跌趨動力比值");
plot2(1);
plot3(2);




拿這個指去畫圖,畫出來的圖如下

 

 

從這兩張圖我們可以發現,當這個指標的值超過2時,代表的是極度賣超的情況,大盤波段見底的機率蠻高的,有興趣的朋友可以自己試看看

指標股站在月線之上的家數

在我使用的各種預測底部的工具中,這個指標不算是領先指標,但算是頗好用的確認指標,這個指標的概念是,在100檔在產業中具有指標地位的公司,有多少檔站在月線之上。

這個指標的寫法是先選出100檔在主要產業裡具有領導地位的公司,然後計算這100檔股票裡,有多少檔目前的收盤價是大於其月線的價位,以下是我寫的腳本

array:lead[100](0);
lead[1]=GetSymbolField("1102.tw","收盤價","D");//台泥
lead[2]=GetSymbolField("2317.tw","收盤價","D");//鴻海
lead[3]=GetSymbolField("1216.tw","收盤價","D");//統一
lead[4]=GetSymbolField("1301.tw","收盤價","D");//台塑
lead[5]=GetSymbolField("1304.tw","收盤價","D");//台聚
lead[6]=GetSymbolField("1312.tw","收盤價","D");//國喬
lead[7]=GetSymbolField("1326.tw","收盤價","D");//台化
lead[8]=GetSymbolField("1455.tw","收盤價","D");//集盛
lead[9]=GetSymbolField("1476.tw","收盤價","D");//儒鴻
lead[10]=GetSymbolField("1477.tw","收盤價","D");//聚陽
lead[11]=GetSymbolField("1513.tw","收盤價","D");//中興電
lead[12]=GetSymbolField("1515.tw","收盤價","D");//力山
lead[13]=GetSymbolField("1521.tw","收盤價","D");//大億
lead[14]=GetSymbolField("1527.tw","收盤價","D");//鑽全
lead[15]=GetSymbolField("1560.tw","收盤價","D");//中砂
lead[16]=GetSymbolField("1565.tw","收盤價","D");//精華
lead[17]=GetSymbolField("1582.tw","收盤價","D");//信錦
lead[18]=GetSymbolField("1605.tw","收盤價","D");//華新
lead[19]=GetSymbolField("1717.tw","收盤價","D");//長興
lead[20]=GetSymbolField("1723.tw","收盤價","D");//中碳
lead[21]=GetSymbolField("1726.tw","收盤價","D");//永記
lead[22]=GetSymbolField("1736.tw","收盤價","D");//喬山
lead[23]=GetSymbolField("1773.tw","收盤價","D");//勝一
lead[24]=GetSymbolField("1795.tw","收盤價","D");//美時
lead[25]=GetSymbolField("1907.tw","收盤價","D");//永豊餘
lead[26]=GetSymbolField("2002.tw","收盤價","D");//中鋼
lead[27]=GetSymbolField("2006.tw","收盤價","D");//東鋼
lead[28]=GetSymbolField("2015.tw","收盤價","D");//豊興
lead[29]=GetSymbolField("2029.tw","收盤價","D");//盛餘
lead[30]=GetSymbolField("2027.tw","收盤價","D");//大成鋼
lead[31]=GetSymbolField("2031.tw","收盤價","D");//新光鋼
lead[32]=GetSymbolField("2049.tw","收盤價","D");//上銀
lead[33]=GetSymbolField("2059.tw","收盤價","D");//川湖
lead[34]=GetSymbolField("2103.tw","收盤價","D");//台橡
lead[35]=GetSymbolField("2105.tw","收盤價","D");//正新
lead[36]=GetSymbolField("2204.tw","收盤價","D");//中華車
lead[37]=GetSymbolField("2207.tw","收盤價","D");//和泰車
lead[38]=GetSymbolField("2231.tw","收盤價","D");//為升
lead[39]=GetSymbolField("2233.tw","收盤價","D");//宇隆
lead[40]=GetSymbolField("2301.tw","收盤價","D");//光寶
lead[41]=GetSymbolField("2303.tw","收盤價","D");//聯電
lead[42]=GetSymbolField("2308.tw","收盤價","D");//台達電
lead[43]=GetSymbolField("2313.tw","收盤價","D");//華通
lead[44]=GetSymbolField("2324.tw","收盤價","D");//仁寶
lead[45]=GetSymbolField("2327.tw","收盤價","D");//國巨
lead[46]=GetSymbolField("2330.tw","收盤價","D");//台積電
lead[47]=GetSymbolField("2337.tw","收盤價","D");//旺宏
lead[48]=GetSymbolField("2344.tw","收盤價","D");//華邦電
lead[49]=GetSymbolField("2345.tw","收盤價","D");//智邦
lead[50]=GetSymbolField("2347.tw","收盤價","D");//聯強
lead[51]=GetSymbolField("2352.tw","收盤價","D");//佳世達
lead[52]=GetSymbolField("2353.tw","收盤價","D");//宏碁
lead[53]=GetSymbolField("2354.tw","收盤價","D");//鴻準
lead[54]=GetSymbolField("2357.tw","收盤價","D");//華碩
lead[55]=GetSymbolField("2368.tw","收盤價","D");//金像電
lead[56]=GetSymbolField("2376.tw","收盤價","D");//技嘉
lead[57]=GetSymbolField("2377.tw","收盤價","D");//微星
lead[58]=GetSymbolField("2379.tw","收盤價","D");//瑞昱
lead[59]=GetSymbolField("2382.tw","收盤價","D");//廣達
lead[60]=GetSymbolField("2383.tw","收盤價","D");//台光電
lead[61]=GetSymbolField("2385.tw","收盤價","D");//群光
lead[62]=GetSymbolField("2393.tw","收盤價","D");//億光
lead[63]=GetSymbolField("2395.tw","收盤價","D");//研華
lead[64]=GetSymbolField("2408.tw","收盤價","D");//南亞科
lead[65]=GetSymbolField("2409.tw","收盤價","D");//友達
lead[66]=GetSymbolField("2439.tw","收盤價","D");//美律
lead[67]=GetSymbolField("2449.tw","收盤價","D");//京元電
lead[68]=GetSymbolField("2454.tw","收盤價","D");//聯發科
lead[69]=GetSymbolField("2603.tw","收盤價","D");//長榮
lead[70]=GetSymbolField("2606.tw","收盤價","D");//裕民
lead[71]=GetSymbolField("2610.tw","收盤價","D");//華航
lead[72]=GetSymbolField("2615.tw","收盤價","D");//萬海
lead[73]=GetSymbolField("2707.tw","收盤價","D");//晶華
lead[74]=GetSymbolField("2729.tw","收盤價","D");//瓦城
lead[75]=GetSymbolField("2731.tw","收盤價","D");//雄獅
lead[76]=GetSymbolField("2912.tw","收盤價","D");//統一超
lead[77]=GetSymbolField("3008.tw","收盤價","D");//大立光
lead[78]=GetSymbolField("3034.tw","收盤價","D");//聯詠
lead[79]=GetSymbolField("3037.tw","收盤價","D");//欣興
lead[80]=GetSymbolField("3042.tw","收盤價","D");//晶技
lead[81]=GetSymbolField("3130.tw","收盤價","D");//104
lead[82]=GetSymbolField("3231.tw","收盤價","D");//緯創
lead[83]=GetSymbolField("3406.tw","收盤價","D");//玉晶光
lead[84]=GetSymbolField("3481.tw","收盤價","D");//群創
lead[85]=GetSymbolField("3576.tw","收盤價","D");//聯合再生
lead[86]=GetSymbolField("3665.tw","收盤價","D");//貿聯
lead[87]=GetSymbolField("3702.tw","收盤價","D");//大聯大
lead[88]=GetSymbolField("3707.tw","收盤價","D");//漢磊
lead[89]=GetSymbolField("3708.tw","收盤價","D");//上緯
lead[90]=GetSymbolField("3711.tw","收盤價","D");//日月光
lead[91]=GetSymbolField("3714.tw","收盤價","D");//富采
lead[92]=GetSymbolField("4438.tw","收盤價","D");//廣越
lead[93]=GetSymbolField("5434.tw","收盤價","D");//崇越
lead[94]=GetSymbolField("6269.tw","收盤價","D");//台郡
lead[95]=GetSymbolField("6285.tw","收盤價","D");//啟碁
lead[96]=GetSymbolField("6505.tw","收盤價","D");//台塑化
lead[97]=GetSymbolField("9910.tw","收盤價","D");//豊泰
lead[98]=GetSymbolField("9921.tw","收盤價","D");//巨大
lead[99]=GetSymbolField("8299.tw","收盤價","D");//群聯
lead[100]=GetSymbolField("8086.tw","收盤價","D");//宏捷科
variable:i(0),count(0);
count=0;
for i=1 to 100 begin
if lead[i]>=average(lead[i],22)
then 
count=count+1;
end;

plot1(count,"指標股站在月線之上家數");
plot2(50);





 

 

這個腳本落落長,有興趣的朋友可以先複製回自己的編輯器上再慢慢修改

下方是我用上面這個腳本畫出來的自訂指標

 

我在使用這指標時,歸納出幾個原則

一,50是多空分水嶺

二,背離是反轉的先兆

三,這個指標如果在10以下領先見底反彈,往往至少會有個反彈

四,如果這個指標超過85以上,要有居高思危的意識

當然大家對指標股的選法會有自己的意見,這邊我覺得就憑個人喜好即可,也請千萬別問我為何選A不選B

整理一下,截到目前為止,一共跟大家介紹了續漲股票家數融資維持率空方氣勢指標庫藏股指標

加上今天的這個指標,一共有五個研判大盤落底與否的工具,未來會繼續跟大家介紹其他我覺得不錯用的工具。

庫藏股指標

大盤是不是到底了? 這問題有一個解法,那就是如果有愈來愈多的大股東,覺得自己的股價委屈了,而且願意真金白銀的實施庫藏股,那麼根據歷史經驗,距離落底的時間就會愈來愈近。

我先前有寫過一篇文章

實施庫藏股是不是個好買點?

這篇文章的結論是,很大的機率,在宣佈實施庫藏股的60天後,股價會比宣佈實施時的股價高

所以我們可以合理的推論,當愈來愈多大股東在其股價大跌後,宣佈開始實施庫藏股,應該是一個大盤可能快要落底的訊號

XQ根據這個思維,提供了一個庫藏股指標,長期記錄每天宣佈要實施庫藏股的公司家數及申報實施的總市值

下面這張圖就是疫情期間有大量的公司宣佈實施庫藏股

再往前看,我們可以發現,如果大股東對產業前景看好,當大盤有較大回檔時,馬上會有公司開始實施庫藏股

但相反的,如果對公司前景不樂觀,就算股價跌的再慘,實施庫藏股的也極其有限

所以,在研判大盤何時落底時,除了先前跟大家介紹的續漲股票家數融資維持率空方氣勢指標之外,庫藏股指標也是一個很值得觀察的指標

這一系列跟大家介紹我在研判大盤時用的工具,主要是我是比較屬於巨波交易型投資人,我會先研判目前屬於循環中的那一階段,再來決定選股及持股比例

既然研判市場多空位置對我很重要,所以會持續打造我的大盤多空檢查表,跟大家介紹的這些指標,都是我檢查表裡的一些工具。

未來有機會,會持續跟大家介紹其他的工具

這些也都會收集在XQ官方部落格的大盤指標這個分類裡,有興趣的朋友再參考看看囉

===

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空頭氣勢指標

最近看空股市似乎成了全民共識,所以我想來跟大家介紹一個偵測空頭氣勢的自訂指標

這個指標的寫法是由融券每日增減張數與借券餘額張數增減張數兩個值作移動平均後的加總值。

所謂的借券餘額是借入證券尚未返還的數額,也就是本日借券成交數量加計累積到前一日尚未返還之數額再減去本日還數量後的數額

但借券不一定代表馬上放空,有意圖跟真的放空還是不大一樣,真的放空的是數字是借券賣出餘額,這個值是本日借券賣出數量加計前一日尚未回補的數額再減去本日借券賣出回補數量後的數額

我這邊因為想要衡量的是空頭的氣勢,所以用的是借券餘額的增減值,因為從借到空往往有時間差,為了更早偵察到空頭的意圖,所以我就直接用借券餘額

另外,我先前有觀察到,借來還沒有放但等著放還是空頭思維,但如果把借的券都還了,那就是死心不空了。

我寫的指標腳本如下

value1=getField("融券增減張數");
value2=getField("借券餘額張數");
value3=value2-value2[1];
value4=average(value1,5)+average(value3,5);
plot1(value4,"空頭氣勢指標");

 

下面這張圖是加權指數跟這個指標的對照圖

 

從這張圖來看,當空頭快速回補時,代表市場氣氛已然轉變,也就是多殺多後必須要等到空頭被軋後才是行情反轉時

例如上圖是疫情造成的下殺時,空頭氣勢在末跌段十分氣盛,但一旦觸底反彈,空方馬上從買超變賣超

以最近的情況來看,空頭從四月開始就非常的活耀,當時指數還在萬七,等到指數殺到萬六時,空頭隨著五月底指數的大反彈,曾經有明顯的回補,但這兩週又開始轉空

這個指標可以了解空頭的心思,普通股的放空在台股市場並不普及,甚至可以說是高手級才會做的事

所以從這個指標也可以了解近N日高手的多空心態

 
===

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從融資維持率看抄底時機

每次在股市大跌之後,總會聽到融資快被斷頭等壞消息,今天我們來了解一下,融資維持率是個什麼樣的概念?這個概念在操作上可以怎麼應用?

簡單說
融資維持率=股票現值/融資金額
對每個個人來說,最重要的是整戶維持率
因為融資與融券等信用交易的維持率,是以整個信用交易的交易情形合併計算,當「整戶維持擔保」低於130%時,券商就會在當天下午發出追繳令,通知投資人於2日內補繳差額,投資人把維持率補足到166%以上後,券商才會撤銷融資追繳令
所以如果您有一檔股票大跌,但其他股票沒事,那整戶維持率可能還維持在130以上,不會收到追繳通知,通常會出現大量的追繳通知,往往都是在整個市場全面重挫,覆巢之下沒有一個沒破的蛋時,才會發生
在 XQ自訂指標可以使用的欄位中,有融資維持率
所以我就寫了一個指標如下
value1=getField("融資維持率");
plot1(value1,"融資維持率");
plot2(130);
plot3(150);
然後用這個指標跟加權指數來作對照
我們會發現,融資餘額從180以上如果呈現一個下跌走勢,大盤往往不是很妙,等到融資維持率砍到150時,在這兩年的多頭市場裡,反而是超跌的訊號,根本不會真的跌到接近130
但因為這兩年是多頭市場,我們應該回頭看一下幾次慘烈的崩盤時期,這個數字的表現
上圖是2020年初疫情造成的崩跌,當時融資維持率跌到135
上圖是2018年10月中美貿易大戰造成的股災時,融資維持率最低跌到141左右
上圖則是2015年股災時,融資維持率最低砍到135.88
真正讓我們看到融資維持率跌破130,是在2008年雷曼風暴的末跌段
上週五融資維持率正式跌破150
如果是在一個多頭市場的長線架構裡,這裡是底部區
如果是空頭市場,那我們必須等待這數字跌到135-140之間才能抄底
當然,千萬不要再來一次2008年,那就麻煩大了

=======

● XQ【#盤中量化交易模組】($1,000) 自己動手寫指標!購買就送【台股進階(原價$300)+小道瓊行情(延遲)】完整介紹 ➤https://pse.is/46xbpu
● 首次訂閱享7天鑑賞期,首次購買輸入官方優惠碼「@XQ8899」,首月可折抵模組費用$100!