在大跌行情中尋找那些值得關注的股票時，我會找那些總市值與研發費用的比值夠低的公司，這樣的公司如果營業利益率夠高，且累計營收比去年同期維持成長，那麼有蠻大的可能，之後的業績表現，會證明大跌後的股價委屈了，等到大盤止跌回穩時，這樣的公司，就很有機會有比較明顯的回升。

基於這樣的想法，我寫了一個選股策略如下：

其中總市值研發費用倍數夠低的腳本如下：

value1=getField("總市值(億)", "D");//億
value2=getField("研發費用", "Y");//百萬
value3=value1/value2*100;
input:ratio(10,"市值研發費用最高倍數上限");
if value3<ratio then ret=1;

我這裡是設總市值最高不會超過研發費用的10倍。

我用這個選股策略去回測過去12年，停損設20%，停利設30%，回測報告如下圖：

勝率有過八成，但交易次數依然偏少。

如果把累計營收成長這個條件拿掉的話，回測的勝率會降到75%。

但交易次數及總報酬率會高非常的多。

如果覺得這樣交易次數有點多，MDD也太大，我們可以把總市值研發費用倍數降到10倍，然後把近2月跌幅拉高到40%，這樣的回測結果就有37個交易機會，且一樣有八成以上的勝率。

這裡要跟大家說明一下，我這裡為啥只用上市普通股減KY的股票去回測，原因是空頭市場通常會兵凶戰危，各種流動性陷阱層出不窮，上市的流動性往往比上櫃好一點，所以這種抄底策略我通常只用上市公司去回測，我自己愛賭系鶴，但寫成白紙黑字就寧可保守一點。

===

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在尋找機會大於風險的選股策略時，我總會拿過往的歷史表現，來做參考，這當中我印象很深刻的是，在每一波大跌後的反彈中，有些表現非常亮眼的股票，是屬於基本面不錯，但因為冷門，跟著被錯殺的超跌股，今天來跟大家討論如何找到這一類的股票。

要找這種被錯殺的小型股，我設了四個條件

一、要真的跌的很深，最好是三個月跌掉五成

二、市值不大，200億是上限，再上去就不能稱為小型股了

三、近八年EPS平均有一元，代表這是一家仍能幫股東創造收益的公司

四、近三個月月營收都比去年同期成長，這表示這家公司業績在成長，是跟著大盤被殺下來的

基於這四點，我設的抄底策略如下：

我拿這個策略去跑非KY的普通股，停損20%，停利30%，過去12年的回測報告如下：

交易次數非常的少，但勝率真的很高。

而且就算把停利拉高到50%，也是只有一個交易會變賠錢。

顯示這種被錯殺但業績有成長的小型股，等到大盤止跌回升，往往會有可觀的漲幅。

這個策略最大的問題是交易次數太少，我先跟大家溝通這樣的概念，之後我會再繼續去尋找有沒有更多類似概念，但交易次數較多的選股策略。

例如過去八年每股稅後淨利平均大於一元這個條件，如果改成四年，會有更好的回測結果。

但交易次數還是太少，等我找到有更多交易次數的類似策略，會再跟大家分享。

===

● XQ【盤後量化選股模組】($1,000) 選股、回測等六大功能，購買就送【台股進階(原價$300)+小道瓊行情(延遲)】➤https://utm.to/48q5pr

● 首次訂閱享7天鑑賞期，首次購買輸入官方優惠碼「@XQ8899」，首月可折抵模組費用$100！

先前我女兒初出社會，存了十萬元，問我要怎麼投資比較好，剛好公司的AI Team在做因子分析，我就試著想研究看看，具備哪些特徵的公司，在大跌後拿來做存股，勝率比較高，今天來跟大家分享我的研究成果。

先說結論，要作為大盤重挫後的存股標的，具備以下三大條件的公司，勝率蠻高的：

一、用盈餘去估算的殖利率要夠高。 不必然要用現金股利殖利率，有的公司需要現金去再投資，只要盈餘殖利率夠高就可以了。

二、股東權益報酬率夠高。股東權益報酬率夠高，代表這家公司具有一定的經營效率，比較容易在景氣衰退期之後，再創公司成長的高峰。

三、長期維持一定的獲利能力。不管景氣變化，長期維持在一定的EPS以上的公司，比較能在不景氣時，維持在良性循環中。

舉個例子，以下是我根據上述的三個特徵，所設計的選股策略：

這些條件都符合上述的三個特徵，再加上近2月跌幅大於35%這個大跌的條件。

拿這個策略去跑非KY的普通股，回測過去12年，停利用30%，停損用20%，回測報告如下：

過去12年的總交易次數是40次，其中35次獲利出場，勝率是87.5%，MDD是24.7% ，還在可以忍受範圍。

我仔細研究了這五次輸錢的交易記錄：

宏達電及瀚荃沒話好說，就是整家公司都不再是符合上述三條件的公司了。

超眾就死得很冤，停損後不久就開始大漲。

新至陞則是進場後股價基本上沒太大表現，停損跟停利都沒有觸發，潤泰全則是才剛觸發沒有多久。

其餘的交易都能獲利出場。

為了防止像宏達電這類的股票被選上，我試著加了一個月營收年增率大於零的條件：

回測的結果如下：

交易次數大減，勝率及報酬率都不如前者。

以上是今天跟大家分享的機會大於風險系列的因子篇，結論是ROE夠高、盈餘殖利率夠高且連續幾年獲利都達到一定水準的公司，較適合在大跌後作為存股的標的。

最後要跟大家說明一點，就是XS的選股回測最長年限就是12年，所以像過往很折磨人的2000年及2008年，都沒有在回測的範圍之內，因此，回測出來的結果，會比較偏樂觀，千萬不要看到勝率很高就直接押身家，請把這些標的先存成自選股，然後要嘛用定時定額的方式往下慢慢買，要嘛等刀子掉到地上後再來追，這點是要跟大家特別說明清楚的。

===

● XQ【盤後量化選股模組】($1,000) 六大功能，購買就送【台股進階(原價$300)+小道瓊行情(延遲)】➤https://utm.to/48q5pr

● 首次訂閱享7天鑑賞期，首次購買輸入官方優惠碼「@XQ8899」，首月可折抵模組費用$100！

以前師父在空頭市場時，看到我們每天無所事事，會叫我們去找那些上檔潛在漲空間比可能下跌幅度要大很多的股票。

例如以前台塑，請參考下圖台塑的月線：

以前40元的台塑就像馬其諾防線一樣，我師父在空頭市場時，一定會逼我們這些師兄弟，在自己負責的旗下公司中，找出這種好公司的長期底部價位區，我師父說，與其看我們每天哀聲嘆氣，不如趁機找看看有沒有機會大於風險的標的。

我師父有一個簡單的算術公式，那就是這家公司股價距離長期底部區不到兩成，但離過往多頭的股價高點超過五成。

找出股票後，他倒不是就直接下去買，而是把這些股票都放到同一組自選股，如果大盤再繼續急殺，他就會開始要交易室慢慢建立部位，我當年有段時間負責喊單，愈接手愈軟，但我師父總是老神在在，有時帳面上的浮虧實在有點恐佈，我開盤前問他真的要再繼續嗎？他會撥一撥所剩無幾的頭髮，然後用很不屑的眼神笑我：「這樣就怕了啊？」

有幾次的確過沒有多久浮動損益就由虧轉正。

但也有幾波跌的比師父預期得重，我得陪他去見大老板，作說明，他都理直氣壯的嗆大老板說，xx元的台塑不敢買就不要出來開券商，我腳很抖，但覺得我師父很帥。

不過我有跟師兄弟討論過，因為我們管的部位接近百億，所以這樣做很合理，但如果是個人的話，應該是等到大盤整個由空翻多之後，再追上去加碼，不應該去猜底部區。

但是在急跌時開始標定那些機會比風險大的股票，的確是有必要。

以前我師父常說，行情是跌出來的，我們大師兄遇大跌，都會告誡我們這些小兄弟：注意！ 新的一輪財富重分配的機會來了，這些話對當年已經被套得亂七八糟的我們來說，聽起來真的很剌耳，但每一次到最後，都證明他們是對的。

這些年師父及大師兄都在享受人生，我則來到嘉實，嘗試往量化投資的方向走，這是這些年碰過最慘烈的一次，疫情那次是V型反轉，沒有漫漫長夜要熬，這次看來變數真多，所以打算推出一個系列，透過「XQ選股中心」，尋找那些機會大於風險的股票。

這一系列的選股法，希望去跑所有非KY的普通股，在回測時，停損設20%，停利設30%，勝率要超過75%，也就是符合這些條件的選股策略，挑出來的股票，四檔裡頭有三檔以上，下跌的空間不到兩成，但上漲的空間超過三成。

今天先跟大家分享的選股策略如下：

這個策略是去找過去五年EPS都超過兩元、毛利率夠高、最近兩個月大跌、本益比低到爆的個股。

用這個選股策略去回測所有非KY的普通股，過去12年裡，在這一波下跌前，只有12個交易訊號，全部都賺錢，勝率達到100%。

這一波下跌以來，共出了華擎及潤泰全兩檔個股。

其中華擎帳面損失8.6%，潤泰全則是虧了6%。

回測的所有交易記錄如下圖：

接下來如果大盤依然如此詭譎，市場如果氣氛依然如此空盪，我會陸續跟大家介紹其他類似的選股策略。

===

● XQ【盤後量化選股模組】($1,000) 選股、回測六大功能，購買就送【台股進階(原價$300)+小道瓊行情(延遲)】➤https://utm.to/48q5pr

● 首次訂閱享7天鑑賞期，首次購買輸入官方優惠碼「@XQ8899」，首月可折抵模組費用$100！

今年這一波空頭市場，外資一直意志堅定的站在賣方：

拉長來看，外資長期站在那一邊，幾乎與大盤的波段趨勢同步。

解鈴還需繋鈴人，行情何時到底？還是要看外資何時回心轉意開始由空偏多。

一般大家在看外資動向時，看的都是外資買賣超，今天跟大家介紹一個不一樣的角度：看看外資買超的指標股家數，也就是不看買超金額，而是看買超家數。

這個自訂指標我稱之為「外資廣度指標」。

下面是我寫的腳本：

array:lead[100](0);
lead[1]=GetSymbolField("1102.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//台泥
lead[2]=GetSymbolField("2317.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//鴻海
lead[3]=GetSymbolField("1216.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//統一
lead[4]=GetSymbolField("1301.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//台塑
lead[5]=GetSymbolField("1304.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//台聚
lead[6]=GetSymbolField("1312.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//國喬
lead[7]=GetSymbolField("1326.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//台化
lead[8]=GetSymbolField("1455.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//集盛
lead[9]=GetSymbolField("1476.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//儒鴻
lead[10]=GetSymbolField("1477.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//聚陽
lead[11]=GetSymbolField("1513.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//中興電
lead[12]=GetSymbolField("1515.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//力山
lead[13]=GetSymbolField("1521.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//大億
lead[14]=GetSymbolField("1527.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//鑽全
lead[15]=GetSymbolField("1560.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//中砂
lead[16]=GetSymbolField("1565.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//精華
lead[17]=GetSymbolField("1582.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//信錦
lead[18]=GetSymbolField("1605.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//華新
lead[19]=GetSymbolField("1717.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//長興
lead[20]=GetSymbolField("1723.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//中碳
lead[21]=GetSymbolField("1726.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//永記
lead[22]=GetSymbolField("1736.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//喬山
lead[23]=GetSymbolField("1773.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//勝一
lead[24]=GetSymbolField("1795.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//美時
lead[25]=GetSymbolField("1907.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//永豊餘
lead[26]=GetSymbolField("2002.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//中鋼
lead[27]=GetSymbolField("2006.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//東鋼
lead[28]=GetSymbolField("2015.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//豊興
lead[29]=GetSymbolField("2029.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//盛餘
lead[30]=GetSymbolField("2027.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//大成鋼
lead[31]=GetSymbolField("2031.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//新光鋼
lead[32]=GetSymbolField("2049.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//上銀
lead[33]=GetSymbolField("2059.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//川湖
lead[34]=GetSymbolField("2103.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//台橡
lead[35]=GetSymbolField("2105.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//正新
lead[36]=GetSymbolField("2204.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//中華車
lead[37]=GetSymbolField("2207.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//和泰車
lead[38]=GetSymbolField("2231.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//為升
lead[39]=GetSymbolField("2233.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//宇隆
lead[40]=GetSymbolField("2301.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//光寶
lead[41]=GetSymbolField("2303.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//聯電
lead[42]=GetSymbolField("2308.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//台達電
lead[43]=GetSymbolField("2313.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//華通
lead[44]=GetSymbolField("2324.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//仁寶
lead[45]=GetSymbolField("2327.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//國巨
lead[46]=GetSymbolField("2330.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//台積電
lead[47]=GetSymbolField("2337.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//旺宏
lead[48]=GetSymbolField("2344.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//華邦電
lead[49]=GetSymbolField("2345.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//智邦
lead[50]=GetSymbolField("2347.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//聯強
lead[51]=GetSymbolField("2352.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//佳世達
lead[52]=GetSymbolField("2353.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//宏碁
lead[53]=GetSymbolField("2354.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//鴻準
lead[54]=GetSymbolField("2357.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//華碩
lead[55]=GetSymbolField("2368.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//金像電
lead[56]=GetSymbolField("2376.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//技嘉
lead[57]=GetSymbolField("2377.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//微星
lead[58]=GetSymbolField("2379.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//瑞昱
lead[59]=GetSymbolField("2382.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//廣達
lead[60]=GetSymbolField("2383.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//台光電
lead[61]=GetSymbolField("2385.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//群光
lead[62]=GetSymbolField("2393.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//億光
lead[63]=GetSymbolField("2395.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//研華
lead[64]=GetSymbolField("2408.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//南亞科
lead[65]=GetSymbolField("2409.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//友達
lead[66]=GetSymbolField("2439.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//美律
lead[67]=GetSymbolField("2449.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//京元電
lead[68]=GetSymbolField("2454.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//聯發科
lead[69]=GetSymbolField("2603.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//長榮
lead[70]=GetSymbolField("2606.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//裕民
lead[71]=GetSymbolField("2610.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//華航
lead[72]=GetSymbolField("2615.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//萬海
lead[73]=GetSymbolField("2707.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//晶華
lead[74]=GetSymbolField("2729.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//瓦城
lead[75]=GetSymbolField("2731.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//雄獅
lead[76]=GetSymbolField("2912.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//統一超
lead[77]=GetSymbolField("3008.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//大立光
lead[78]=GetSymbolField("3034.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//聯詠
lead[79]=GetSymbolField("3037.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//欣興
lead[80]=GetSymbolField("3042.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//晶技
lead[81]=GetSymbolField("3130.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//104
lead[82]=GetSymbolField("3231.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//緯創
lead[83]=GetSymbolField("3406.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//玉晶光
lead[84]=GetSymbolField("3481.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//群創
lead[85]=GetSymbolField("3576.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//聯合再生
lead[86]=GetSymbolField("3665.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//貿聯
lead[87]=GetSymbolField("3702.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//大聯大
lead[88]=GetSymbolField("3707.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//漢磊
lead[89]=GetSymbolField("3708.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//上緯
lead[90]=GetSymbolField("3711.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//日月光
lead[91]=GetSymbolField("3714.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//富采
lead[92]=GetSymbolField("4438.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//廣越
lead[93]=GetSymbolField("5434.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//崇越
lead[94]=GetSymbolField("6269.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//台郡
lead[95]=GetSymbolField("6285.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//啟碁
lead[96]=GetSymbolField("6505.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//台塑化
lead[97]=GetSymbolField("9910.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//豊泰
lead[98]=GetSymbolField("9921.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//巨大
lead[99]=GetSymbolField("8299.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//群聯
lead[100]=GetSymbolField("8086.tw","外資買賣超張數","D");//宏捷科
variable:i(0),count(0);
count=0;
for i=1 to 100 begin
if lead[i]>=lead[i][1] 
and lead[i]>=100
//外資買超大於100張，且不比前一天少
then 
count=count+1;
end;
plot1(average(count,15),"外資廣度指標");

根據這個腳本，畫出來的圖如下：

這是算出每天符合外資買超超過100張且買超張數不比前一天少的指標股家數，然後取15日移動平均。

這個數字如果突破25，通常後市仍有高點，如果超過30，就要小心高處不勝寒。

如果這個指標呈現上升趨勢，表示外資愈買愈多的股票數在增加，呈現下跌趨勢，則是外資縮手的情況愈來愈普遍。

以前我還在跑新聞的時候，市場有些老師父常會突然吐出一句經驗之談，我印象很深刻的是，民國79年指數跌到五千點以下時，我覺得股價跟先前相比，實在太便宜，所以每天早上都試著搶反彈，但最常見的就是今天追進去，明天開盤就套了

後來我就問那些深經百戰的老師父，到底何時才能進場？

老師父悠悠的跟我說，如果那些績優股能連兩天走強，你再試看看

，如果今天最強的，就是明天最弱的，那就代表進場的都只是想搶反彈的，今天追明天就想要賣，而且一漲就沒有人想追，代表市場多方意志很脆弱

老師父的這番話我一直記到今天

所以當XS可以自訂指標時，我就寫了一個續強力指標，來作為研判大盤多空方向的工具

這個指標的寫法是去計算指標股中，有那些股票昨天轉強後今天仍能收紅，然後取15天的移動平均

我寫的腳本如下：

array:lead[100](0);
lead[1]=GetSymbolField("1102.tw","收盤價","D");//台泥
lead[2]=GetSymbolField("2317.tw","收盤價","D");//鴻海
lead[3]=GetSymbolField("1216.tw","收盤價","D");//統一
lead[4]=GetSymbolField("1301.tw","收盤價","D");//台塑
lead[5]=GetSymbolField("1304.tw","收盤價","D");//台聚
lead[6]=GetSymbolField("1312.tw","收盤價","D");//國喬
lead[7]=GetSymbolField("1326.tw","收盤價","D");//台化
lead[8]=GetSymbolField("1455.tw","收盤價","D");//集盛
lead[9]=GetSymbolField("1476.tw","收盤價","D");//儒鴻
lead[10]=GetSymbolField("1477.tw","收盤價","D");//聚陽
lead[11]=GetSymbolField("1513.tw","收盤價","D");//中興電
lead[12]=GetSymbolField("1515.tw","收盤價","D");//力山
lead[13]=GetSymbolField("1521.tw","收盤價","D");//大億
lead[14]=GetSymbolField("1527.tw","收盤價","D");//鑽全
lead[15]=GetSymbolField("1560.tw","收盤價","D");//中砂
lead[16]=GetSymbolField("1565.tw","收盤價","D");//精華
lead[17]=GetSymbolField("1582.tw","收盤價","D");//信錦
lead[18]=GetSymbolField("1605.tw","收盤價","D");//華新
lead[19]=GetSymbolField("1717.tw","收盤價","D");//長興
lead[20]=GetSymbolField("1723.tw","收盤價","D");//中碳
lead[21]=GetSymbolField("1726.tw","收盤價","D");//永記
lead[22]=GetSymbolField("1736.tw","收盤價","D");//喬山
lead[23]=GetSymbolField("1773.tw","收盤價","D");//勝一
lead[24]=GetSymbolField("1795.tw","收盤價","D");//美時
lead[25]=GetSymbolField("1907.tw","收盤價","D");//永豊餘
lead[26]=GetSymbolField("2002.tw","收盤價","D");//中鋼
lead[27]=GetSymbolField("2006.tw","收盤價","D");//東鋼
lead[28]=GetSymbolField("2015.tw","收盤價","D");//豊興
lead[29]=GetSymbolField("2029.tw","收盤價","D");//盛餘
lead[30]=GetSymbolField("2027.tw","收盤價","D");//大成鋼
lead[31]=GetSymbolField("2031.tw","收盤價","D");//新光鋼
lead[32]=GetSymbolField("2049.tw","收盤價","D");//上銀
lead[33]=GetSymbolField("2059.tw","收盤價","D");//川湖
lead[34]=GetSymbolField("2103.tw","收盤價","D");//台橡
lead[35]=GetSymbolField("2105.tw","收盤價","D");//正新
lead[36]=GetSymbolField("2204.tw","收盤價","D");//中華車
lead[37]=GetSymbolField("2207.tw","收盤價","D");//和泰車
lead[38]=GetSymbolField("2231.tw","收盤價","D");//為升
lead[39]=GetSymbolField("2233.tw","收盤價","D");//宇隆
lead[40]=GetSymbolField("2301.tw","收盤價","D");//光寶
lead[41]=GetSymbolField("2303.tw","收盤價","D");//聯電
lead[42]=GetSymbolField("2308.tw","收盤價","D");//台達電
lead[43]=GetSymbolField("2313.tw","收盤價","D");//華通
lead[44]=GetSymbolField("2324.tw","收盤價","D");//仁寶
lead[45]=GetSymbolField("2327.tw","收盤價","D");//國巨
lead[46]=GetSymbolField("2330.tw","收盤價","D");//台積電
lead[47]=GetSymbolField("2337.tw","收盤價","D");//旺宏
lead[48]=GetSymbolField("2344.tw","收盤價","D");//華邦電
lead[49]=GetSymbolField("2345.tw","收盤價","D");//智邦
lead[50]=GetSymbolField("2347.tw","收盤價","D");//聯強
lead[51]=GetSymbolField("2352.tw","收盤價","D");//佳世達
lead[52]=GetSymbolField("2353.tw","收盤價","D");//宏碁
lead[53]=GetSymbolField("2354.tw","收盤價","D");//鴻準
lead[54]=GetSymbolField("2357.tw","收盤價","D");//華碩
lead[55]=GetSymbolField("2368.tw","收盤價","D");//金像電
lead[56]=GetSymbolField("2376.tw","收盤價","D");//技嘉
lead[57]=GetSymbolField("2377.tw","收盤價","D");//微星
lead[58]=GetSymbolField("2379.tw","收盤價","D");//瑞昱
lead[59]=GetSymbolField("2382.tw","收盤價","D");//廣達
lead[60]=GetSymbolField("2383.tw","收盤價","D");//台光電
lead[61]=GetSymbolField("2385.tw","收盤價","D");//群光
lead[62]=GetSymbolField("2393.tw","收盤價","D");//億光
lead[63]=GetSymbolField("2395.tw","收盤價","D");//研華
lead[64]=GetSymbolField("2408.tw","收盤價","D");//南亞科
lead[65]=GetSymbolField("2409.tw","收盤價","D");//友達
lead[66]=GetSymbolField("2439.tw","收盤價","D");//美律
lead[67]=GetSymbolField("2449.tw","收盤價","D");//京元電
lead[68]=GetSymbolField("2454.tw","收盤價","D");//聯發科
lead[69]=GetSymbolField("2603.tw","收盤價","D");//長榮
lead[70]=GetSymbolField("2606.tw","收盤價","D");//裕民
lead[71]=GetSymbolField("2610.tw","收盤價","D");//華航
lead[72]=GetSymbolField("2615.tw","收盤價","D");//萬海
lead[73]=GetSymbolField("2707.tw","收盤價","D");//晶華
lead[74]=GetSymbolField("2729.tw","收盤價","D");//瓦城
lead[75]=GetSymbolField("2731.tw","收盤價","D");//雄獅
lead[76]=GetSymbolField("2912.tw","收盤價","D");//統一超
lead[77]=GetSymbolField("3008.tw","收盤價","D");//大立光
lead[78]=GetSymbolField("3034.tw","收盤價","D");//聯詠
lead[79]=GetSymbolField("3037.tw","收盤價","D");//欣興
lead[80]=GetSymbolField("3042.tw","收盤價","D");//晶技
lead[81]=GetSymbolField("3130.tw","收盤價","D");//104
lead[82]=GetSymbolField("3231.tw","收盤價","D");//緯創
lead[83]=GetSymbolField("3406.tw","收盤價","D");//玉晶光
lead[84]=GetSymbolField("3481.tw","收盤價","D");//群創
lead[85]=GetSymbolField("3576.tw","收盤價","D");//聯合再生
lead[86]=GetSymbolField("3665.tw","收盤價","D");//貿聯
lead[87]=GetSymbolField("3702.tw","收盤價","D");//大聯大
lead[88]=GetSymbolField("3707.tw","收盤價","D");//漢磊
lead[89]=GetSymbolField("3708.tw","收盤價","D");//上緯
lead[90]=GetSymbolField("3711.tw","收盤價","D");//日月光
lead[91]=GetSymbolField("3714.tw","收盤價","D");//富采
lead[92]=GetSymbolField("4438.tw","收盤價","D");//廣越
lead[93]=GetSymbolField("5434.tw","收盤價","D");//崇越
lead[94]=GetSymbolField("6269.tw","收盤價","D");//台郡
lead[95]=GetSymbolField("6285.tw","收盤價","D");//啟碁
lead[96]=GetSymbolField("6505.tw","收盤價","D");//台塑化
lead[97]=GetSymbolField("9910.tw","收盤價","D");//豊泰
lead[98]=GetSymbolField("9921.tw","收盤價","D");//巨大
lead[99]=GetSymbolField("8299.tw","收盤價","D");//群聯
lead[100]=GetSymbolField("8086.tw","收盤價","D");//宏捷科
variable:i(0),count(0);
count=0;
for i=1 to 100 begin
if lead[i]>=lead[i][1]*1.01
and lead[i][1]>=lead[i][2]*1.03
//前一日漲超過2.5%而今日仍能續漲超過1%
then 
count=count+1;
end;
plot1(average(count,15),"續強指標");

用這個指標跟加權指數畫出來的對照圖如下

大家可以看一下，我是覺得還蠻具參考價值的

整理一下，截到目前為止，一共跟大家介紹了

續漲股票家數

融資維持率

空方氣勢指標

庫藏股指標 

指標股站在月線之上的家數

上漲下跌趨動力比

指標股築底指標

以及今天的續強力指標

我一向是覺得多算勝，少算不勝，所以在研判大盤時，比較不會使用唯一的指標作決策，而是從各個面相來研判，這些自訂指標就是我在研判時用的工具

每天很快的把這些指標跟大盤的連動關係瞄一下，如果多數指標都呈現多方訊號，就會比較大膽的加碼，如果指標訊號有的偏多，有的偏空，就會再看一下

在研判大盤是否築底時，我常看的是，具指標意義的個股，有多少已有開始築底的跡象，例如股價已符合脫離近期最低點達一成以上之類的條件。

根據這樣的思維，我寫了一個指標股築底指標，這個指標的腳本如下

array:lead[100](0);
lead[1]=GetSymbolField("1102.tw","收盤價","D");//台泥
lead[2]=GetSymbolField("2317.tw","收盤價","D");//鴻海
lead[3]=GetSymbolField("1216.tw","收盤價","D");//統一
lead[4]=GetSymbolField("1301.tw","收盤價","D");//台塑
lead[5]=GetSymbolField("1304.tw","收盤價","D");//台聚
lead[6]=GetSymbolField("1312.tw","收盤價","D");//國喬
lead[7]=GetSymbolField("1326.tw","收盤價","D");//台化
lead[8]=GetSymbolField("1455.tw","收盤價","D");//集盛
lead[9]=GetSymbolField("1476.tw","收盤價","D");//儒鴻
lead[10]=GetSymbolField("1477.tw","收盤價","D");//聚陽
lead[11]=GetSymbolField("1513.tw","收盤價","D");//中興電
lead[12]=GetSymbolField("1515.tw","收盤價","D");//力山
lead[13]=GetSymbolField("1521.tw","收盤價","D");//大億
lead[14]=GetSymbolField("1527.tw","收盤價","D");//鑽全
lead[15]=GetSymbolField("1560.tw","收盤價","D");//中砂
lead[16]=GetSymbolField("1565.tw","收盤價","D");//精華
lead[17]=GetSymbolField("1582.tw","收盤價","D");//信錦
lead[18]=GetSymbolField("1605.tw","收盤價","D");//華新
lead[19]=GetSymbolField("1717.tw","收盤價","D");//長興
lead[20]=GetSymbolField("1723.tw","收盤價","D");//中碳
lead[21]=GetSymbolField("1726.tw","收盤價","D");//永記
lead[22]=GetSymbolField("1736.tw","收盤價","D");//喬山
lead[23]=GetSymbolField("1773.tw","收盤價","D");//勝一
lead[24]=GetSymbolField("1795.tw","收盤價","D");//美時
lead[25]=GetSymbolField("1907.tw","收盤價","D");//永豊餘
lead[26]=GetSymbolField("2002.tw","收盤價","D");//中鋼
lead[27]=GetSymbolField("2006.tw","收盤價","D");//東鋼
lead[28]=GetSymbolField("2015.tw","收盤價","D");//豊興
lead[29]=GetSymbolField("2029.tw","收盤價","D");//盛餘
lead[30]=GetSymbolField("2027.tw","收盤價","D");//大成鋼
lead[31]=GetSymbolField("2031.tw","收盤價","D");//新光鋼
lead[32]=GetSymbolField("2049.tw","收盤價","D");//上銀
lead[33]=GetSymbolField("2059.tw","收盤價","D");//川湖
lead[34]=GetSymbolField("2103.tw","收盤價","D");//台橡
lead[35]=GetSymbolField("2105.tw","收盤價","D");//正新
lead[36]=GetSymbolField("2204.tw","收盤價","D");//中華車
lead[37]=GetSymbolField("2207.tw","收盤價","D");//和泰車
lead[38]=GetSymbolField("2231.tw","收盤價","D");//為升
lead[39]=GetSymbolField("2233.tw","收盤價","D");//宇隆
lead[40]=GetSymbolField("2301.tw","收盤價","D");//光寶
lead[41]=GetSymbolField("2303.tw","收盤價","D");//聯電
lead[42]=GetSymbolField("2308.tw","收盤價","D");//台達電
lead[43]=GetSymbolField("2313.tw","收盤價","D");//華通
lead[44]=GetSymbolField("2324.tw","收盤價","D");//仁寶
lead[45]=GetSymbolField("2327.tw","收盤價","D");//國巨
lead[46]=GetSymbolField("2330.tw","收盤價","D");//台積電
lead[47]=GetSymbolField("2337.tw","收盤價","D");//旺宏
lead[48]=GetSymbolField("2344.tw","收盤價","D");//華邦電
lead[49]=GetSymbolField("2345.tw","收盤價","D");//智邦
lead[50]=GetSymbolField("2347.tw","收盤價","D");//聯強
lead[51]=GetSymbolField("2352.tw","收盤價","D");//佳世達
lead[52]=GetSymbolField("2353.tw","收盤價","D");//宏碁
lead[53]=GetSymbolField("2354.tw","收盤價","D");//鴻準
lead[54]=GetSymbolField("2357.tw","收盤價","D");//華碩
lead[55]=GetSymbolField("2368.tw","收盤價","D");//金像電
lead[56]=GetSymbolField("2376.tw","收盤價","D");//技嘉
lead[57]=GetSymbolField("2377.tw","收盤價","D");//微星
lead[58]=GetSymbolField("2379.tw","收盤價","D");//瑞昱
lead[59]=GetSymbolField("2382.tw","收盤價","D");//廣達
lead[60]=GetSymbolField("2383.tw","收盤價","D");//台光電
lead[61]=GetSymbolField("2385.tw","收盤價","D");//群光
lead[62]=GetSymbolField("2393.tw","收盤價","D");//億光
lead[63]=GetSymbolField("2395.tw","收盤價","D");//研華
lead[64]=GetSymbolField("2408.tw","收盤價","D");//南亞科
lead[65]=GetSymbolField("2409.tw","收盤價","D");//友達
lead[66]=GetSymbolField("2439.tw","收盤價","D");//美律
lead[67]=GetSymbolField("2449.tw","收盤價","D");//京元電
lead[68]=GetSymbolField("2454.tw","收盤價","D");//聯發科
lead[69]=GetSymbolField("2603.tw","收盤價","D");//長榮
lead[70]=GetSymbolField("2606.tw","收盤價","D");//裕民
lead[71]=GetSymbolField("2610.tw","收盤價","D");//華航
lead[72]=GetSymbolField("2615.tw","收盤價","D");//萬海
lead[73]=GetSymbolField("2707.tw","收盤價","D");//晶華
lead[74]=GetSymbolField("2729.tw","收盤價","D");//瓦城
lead[75]=GetSymbolField("2731.tw","收盤價","D");//雄獅
lead[76]=GetSymbolField("2912.tw","收盤價","D");//統一超
lead[77]=GetSymbolField("3008.tw","收盤價","D");//大立光
lead[78]=GetSymbolField("3034.tw","收盤價","D");//聯詠
lead[79]=GetSymbolField("3037.tw","收盤價","D");//欣興
lead[80]=GetSymbolField("3042.tw","收盤價","D");//晶技
lead[81]=GetSymbolField("3130.tw","收盤價","D");//104
lead[82]=GetSymbolField("3231.tw","收盤價","D");//緯創
lead[83]=GetSymbolField("3406.tw","收盤價","D");//玉晶光
lead[84]=GetSymbolField("3481.tw","收盤價","D");//群創
lead[85]=GetSymbolField("3576.tw","收盤價","D");//聯合再生
lead[86]=GetSymbolField("3665.tw","收盤價","D");//貿聯
lead[87]=GetSymbolField("3702.tw","收盤價","D");//大聯大
lead[88]=GetSymbolField("3707.tw","收盤價","D");//漢磊
lead[89]=GetSymbolField("3708.tw","收盤價","D");//上緯
lead[90]=GetSymbolField("3711.tw","收盤價","D");//日月光
lead[91]=GetSymbolField("3714.tw","收盤價","D");//富采
lead[92]=GetSymbolField("4438.tw","收盤價","D");//廣越
lead[93]=GetSymbolField("5434.tw","收盤價","D");//崇越
lead[94]=GetSymbolField("6269.tw","收盤價","D");//台郡
lead[95]=GetSymbolField("6285.tw","收盤價","D");//啟碁
lead[96]=GetSymbolField("6505.tw","收盤價","D");//台塑化
lead[97]=GetSymbolField("9910.tw","收盤價","D");//豊泰
lead[98]=GetSymbolField("9921.tw","收盤價","D");//巨大
lead[99]=GetSymbolField("8299.tw","收盤價","D");//群聯
lead[100]=GetSymbolField("8086.tw","收盤價","D");//宏捷科
variable:i(0),count(0);
count=0;
for i=1 to 100 begin
if lead[i]>lowest(lead[i],10)*1.1
//收盤價比近十日低點回升一成
then 
count=count+1;
end;

plot1(100-count,"指標股築底家數");
//用100-count 代表數字愈大，愈多股票沒有比十日低點高超過一成
//數字愈小，代表愈來愈多股票比十日低點高出一成
plot2(20);
plot3(35);

這個指標與加權指數的對照圖如下

為了跟加權指數作對照，所以這個指標我是用指標股數量100去減符合築底條件的股票，也就是這個數字愈高，代表愈多股票沒有比十日低點高超過一成，相反的，這指標數字愈小，代表愈多股票築底成功

根據上圖，我們可以看到，這數字在35以上時，代表有三分之一的個股距離近十日低點不到一成，指數在高點，相反的，這數字在20以下時，代表有八成的股票，股價距離十日低點已漲超過一成，如果這個情況出現在指數低點，而且指數下跌，這指標也下跌，代表盤在跌，但築底的家數變多，則是一個反轉的訊號

如下圖

但如果這數字伴著指數反彈後馬上回升，代表符合條件的股票變少，這就不算是築底的訊號，頂多是反彈

這個指標，因為我挑的這100檔指標股裡有上市較短的公司，如果各位希望看更長的數字，就需要讓指標股都上市蠻久的才可以

這點要跟大家作個說明

整理一下，截到目前為止，一共跟大家介紹了續漲股票家數，融資維持率，空方氣勢指標，庫藏股指標 

指標股站在月線之上的家數，上漲下跌趨動力比

加上今天的這個指標，一共有七個研判大盤落底與否的工具，大盤是否落底，大家可以搭配著這些指標，相互印證及確認，未來在盤勢如果還是詭譎多變，我會繼續跟大家介紹其他我覺得不錯用的工具，也會跟大家從其他面向，分享我研判大盤多空方向的其他類工具。

今天來跟大家介紹一個我無意間發現的指標，我把它命名為上漲下跌趨動力比

這個指標的公式，是把XQ裡的上漲量除以上漲家數作分母，下跌量除以下跌家數作分子，算出一個比例

XQ的上漲量跟下跌量不是上漲公司的合計量跟下跌公司的合計量，而是所有公司當根日線在盤上的成交量稱為上漲量，當根日線所有公司在盤下的成交量稱為下跌量，以下是XQ官網的說明：

上漲量的計算是，這一根K棒內上漲量(比前一價高的成交量)的加總。

在大盤、類股商品中，則是成分股的加總。 下跌量也是這樣算出來的

所以這個比值的意思是平均每檔下跌的股票有多少下跌量與平均每檔上漲股票產生多少上漲量的比值

這個指標的值愈大，代表下殺的能量愈大

我把這個想法寫成了自訂指標

settotalbar(1000);

value1=getField("上漲家數", "D");
value2=getField("下跌家數", "D");
value3=getField("上漲量", "D");
value4=getField("下跌量", "D");
value5=(value3/value1);
//上漲量/上漲家數
value6=(value4/value2);
//下跌量/下跌家數
value7=value6/value5;


plot1(value7,"上漲下跌趨動力比值");
plot2(1);
plot3(2);

拿這個指去畫圖，畫出來的圖如下

從這兩張圖我們可以發現，當這個指標的值超過2時，代表的是極度賣超的情況，大盤波段見底的機率蠻高的，有興趣的朋友可以自己試看看

在我使用的各種預測底部的工具中，這個指標不算是領先指標，但算是頗好用的確認指標，這個指標的概念是，在100檔在產業中具有指標地位的公司，有多少檔站在月線之上。

這個指標的寫法是先選出100檔在主要產業裡具有領導地位的公司，然後計算這100檔股票裡，有多少檔目前的收盤價是大於其月線的價位，以下是我寫的腳本

array:lead[100](0);
lead[1]=GetSymbolField("1102.tw","收盤價","D");//台泥
lead[2]=GetSymbolField("2317.tw","收盤價","D");//鴻海
lead[3]=GetSymbolField("1216.tw","收盤價","D");//統一
lead[4]=GetSymbolField("1301.tw","收盤價","D");//台塑
lead[5]=GetSymbolField("1304.tw","收盤價","D");//台聚
lead[6]=GetSymbolField("1312.tw","收盤價","D");//國喬
lead[7]=GetSymbolField("1326.tw","收盤價","D");//台化
lead[8]=GetSymbolField("1455.tw","收盤價","D");//集盛
lead[9]=GetSymbolField("1476.tw","收盤價","D");//儒鴻
lead[10]=GetSymbolField("1477.tw","收盤價","D");//聚陽
lead[11]=GetSymbolField("1513.tw","收盤價","D");//中興電
lead[12]=GetSymbolField("1515.tw","收盤價","D");//力山
lead[13]=GetSymbolField("1521.tw","收盤價","D");//大億
lead[14]=GetSymbolField("1527.tw","收盤價","D");//鑽全
lead[15]=GetSymbolField("1560.tw","收盤價","D");//中砂
lead[16]=GetSymbolField("1565.tw","收盤價","D");//精華
lead[17]=GetSymbolField("1582.tw","收盤價","D");//信錦
lead[18]=GetSymbolField("1605.tw","收盤價","D");//華新
lead[19]=GetSymbolField("1717.tw","收盤價","D");//長興
lead[20]=GetSymbolField("1723.tw","收盤價","D");//中碳
lead[21]=GetSymbolField("1726.tw","收盤價","D");//永記
lead[22]=GetSymbolField("1736.tw","收盤價","D");//喬山
lead[23]=GetSymbolField("1773.tw","收盤價","D");//勝一
lead[24]=GetSymbolField("1795.tw","收盤價","D");//美時
lead[25]=GetSymbolField("1907.tw","收盤價","D");//永豊餘
lead[26]=GetSymbolField("2002.tw","收盤價","D");//中鋼
lead[27]=GetSymbolField("2006.tw","收盤價","D");//東鋼
lead[28]=GetSymbolField("2015.tw","收盤價","D");//豊興
lead[29]=GetSymbolField("2029.tw","收盤價","D");//盛餘
lead[30]=GetSymbolField("2027.tw","收盤價","D");//大成鋼
lead[31]=GetSymbolField("2031.tw","收盤價","D");//新光鋼
lead[32]=GetSymbolField("2049.tw","收盤價","D");//上銀
lead[33]=GetSymbolField("2059.tw","收盤價","D");//川湖
lead[34]=GetSymbolField("2103.tw","收盤價","D");//台橡
lead[35]=GetSymbolField("2105.tw","收盤價","D");//正新
lead[36]=GetSymbolField("2204.tw","收盤價","D");//中華車
lead[37]=GetSymbolField("2207.tw","收盤價","D");//和泰車
lead[38]=GetSymbolField("2231.tw","收盤價","D");//為升
lead[39]=GetSymbolField("2233.tw","收盤價","D");//宇隆
lead[40]=GetSymbolField("2301.tw","收盤價","D");//光寶
lead[41]=GetSymbolField("2303.tw","收盤價","D");//聯電
lead[42]=GetSymbolField("2308.tw","收盤價","D");//台達電
lead[43]=GetSymbolField("2313.tw","收盤價","D");//華通
lead[44]=GetSymbolField("2324.tw","收盤價","D");//仁寶
lead[45]=GetSymbolField("2327.tw","收盤價","D");//國巨
lead[46]=GetSymbolField("2330.tw","收盤價","D");//台積電
lead[47]=GetSymbolField("2337.tw","收盤價","D");//旺宏
lead[48]=GetSymbolField("2344.tw","收盤價","D");//華邦電
lead[49]=GetSymbolField("2345.tw","收盤價","D");//智邦
lead[50]=GetSymbolField("2347.tw","收盤價","D");//聯強
lead[51]=GetSymbolField("2352.tw","收盤價","D");//佳世達
lead[52]=GetSymbolField("2353.tw","收盤價","D");//宏碁
lead[53]=GetSymbolField("2354.tw","收盤價","D");//鴻準
lead[54]=GetSymbolField("2357.tw","收盤價","D");//華碩
lead[55]=GetSymbolField("2368.tw","收盤價","D");//金像電
lead[56]=GetSymbolField("2376.tw","收盤價","D");//技嘉
lead[57]=GetSymbolField("2377.tw","收盤價","D");//微星
lead[58]=GetSymbolField("2379.tw","收盤價","D");//瑞昱
lead[59]=GetSymbolField("2382.tw","收盤價","D");//廣達
lead[60]=GetSymbolField("2383.tw","收盤價","D");//台光電
lead[61]=GetSymbolField("2385.tw","收盤價","D");//群光
lead[62]=GetSymbolField("2393.tw","收盤價","D");//億光
lead[63]=GetSymbolField("2395.tw","收盤價","D");//研華
lead[64]=GetSymbolField("2408.tw","收盤價","D");//南亞科
lead[65]=GetSymbolField("2409.tw","收盤價","D");//友達
lead[66]=GetSymbolField("2439.tw","收盤價","D");//美律
lead[67]=GetSymbolField("2449.tw","收盤價","D");//京元電
lead[68]=GetSymbolField("2454.tw","收盤價","D");//聯發科
lead[69]=GetSymbolField("2603.tw","收盤價","D");//長榮
lead[70]=GetSymbolField("2606.tw","收盤價","D");//裕民
lead[71]=GetSymbolField("2610.tw","收盤價","D");//華航
lead[72]=GetSymbolField("2615.tw","收盤價","D");//萬海
lead[73]=GetSymbolField("2707.tw","收盤價","D");//晶華
lead[74]=GetSymbolField("2729.tw","收盤價","D");//瓦城
lead[75]=GetSymbolField("2731.tw","收盤價","D");//雄獅
lead[76]=GetSymbolField("2912.tw","收盤價","D");//統一超
lead[77]=GetSymbolField("3008.tw","收盤價","D");//大立光
lead[78]=GetSymbolField("3034.tw","收盤價","D");//聯詠
lead[79]=GetSymbolField("3037.tw","收盤價","D");//欣興
lead[80]=GetSymbolField("3042.tw","收盤價","D");//晶技
lead[81]=GetSymbolField("3130.tw","收盤價","D");//104
lead[82]=GetSymbolField("3231.tw","收盤價","D");//緯創
lead[83]=GetSymbolField("3406.tw","收盤價","D");//玉晶光
lead[84]=GetSymbolField("3481.tw","收盤價","D");//群創
lead[85]=GetSymbolField("3576.tw","收盤價","D");//聯合再生
lead[86]=GetSymbolField("3665.tw","收盤價","D");//貿聯
lead[87]=GetSymbolField("3702.tw","收盤價","D");//大聯大
lead[88]=GetSymbolField("3707.tw","收盤價","D");//漢磊
lead[89]=GetSymbolField("3708.tw","收盤價","D");//上緯
lead[90]=GetSymbolField("3711.tw","收盤價","D");//日月光
lead[91]=GetSymbolField("3714.tw","收盤價","D");//富采
lead[92]=GetSymbolField("4438.tw","收盤價","D");//廣越
lead[93]=GetSymbolField("5434.tw","收盤價","D");//崇越
lead[94]=GetSymbolField("6269.tw","收盤價","D");//台郡
lead[95]=GetSymbolField("6285.tw","收盤價","D");//啟碁
lead[96]=GetSymbolField("6505.tw","收盤價","D");//台塑化
lead[97]=GetSymbolField("9910.tw","收盤價","D");//豊泰
lead[98]=GetSymbolField("9921.tw","收盤價","D");//巨大
lead[99]=GetSymbolField("8299.tw","收盤價","D");//群聯
lead[100]=GetSymbolField("8086.tw","收盤價","D");//宏捷科
variable:i(0),count(0);
count=0;
for i=1 to 100 begin
if lead[i]>=average(lead[i],22)
then 
count=count+1;
end;

plot1(count,"指標股站在月線之上家數");
plot2(50);

這個腳本落落長，有興趣的朋友可以先複製回自己的編輯器上再慢慢修改

下方是我用上面這個腳本畫出來的自訂指標

我在使用這指標時，歸納出幾個原則

一，50是多空分水嶺

二，背離是反轉的先兆

三，這個指標如果在10以下領先見底反彈，往往至少會有個反彈

四，如果這個指標超過85以上，要有居高思危的意識

當然大家對指標股的選法會有自己的意見，這邊我覺得就憑個人喜好即可，也請千萬別問我為何選A不選B

整理一下，截到目前為止，一共跟大家介紹了續漲股票家數，融資維持率，空方氣勢指標，庫藏股指標

加上今天的這個指標，一共有五個研判大盤落底與否的工具，未來會繼續跟大家介紹其他我覺得不錯用的工具。

大盤是不是到底了？ 這問題有一個解法，那就是如果有愈來愈多的大股東，覺得自己的股價委屈了，而且願意真金白銀的實施庫藏股，那麼根據歷史經驗，距離落底的時間就會愈來愈近。

我先前有寫過一篇文章

實施庫藏股是不是個好買點？

這篇文章的結論是，很大的機率，在宣佈實施庫藏股的60天後，股價會比宣佈實施時的股價高

所以我們可以合理的推論，當愈來愈多大股東在其股價大跌後，宣佈開始實施庫藏股，應該是一個大盤可能快要落底的訊號

XQ根據這個思維，提供了一個庫藏股指標，長期記錄每天宣佈要實施庫藏股的公司家數及申報實施的總市值

下面這張圖就是疫情期間有大量的公司宣佈實施庫藏股

再往前看，我們可以發現，如果大股東對產業前景看好，當大盤有較大回檔時，馬上會有公司開始實施庫藏股

但相反的，如果對公司前景不樂觀，就算股價跌的再慘，實施庫藏股的也極其有限

所以，在研判大盤何時落底時，除了先前跟大家介紹的續漲股票家數，融資維持率，空方氣勢指標之外，庫藏股指標也是一個很值得觀察的指標

這一系列跟大家介紹我在研判大盤時用的工具，主要是我是比較屬於巨波交易型投資人，我會先研判目前屬於循環中的那一階段，再來決定選股及持股比例

既然研判市場多空位置對我很重要，所以會持續打造我的大盤多空檢查表，跟大家介紹的這些指標，都是我檢查表裡的一些工具。

未來有機會，會持續跟大家介紹其他的工具

這些也都會收集在XQ官方部落格的大盤指標這個分類裡，有興趣的朋友再參考看看囉

===

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